Critical fire weather…

RED FLAG WARNINGS Monday and Tuesday. Fire weather watch for Wednesday.

Sunday – 7 Jun 2026 – 8:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 82, Low: 40, Peak wind: 29mph

Saturday: High: 83, Low: 43, Peak wind: 43mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
75	87 / 1913	35	19 / 1951

Precipitation summary… Precip amounts over the last couple of days ranged from zero to 0.04”. Most of us got zero.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Sunday evening – Purple arrows indicate upper level flow. The ridge, jagged blue line, has moved to our east. The pressure gradient between the trough along the CA coast and the ridge will tighten and bring gusty winds across the region.

There is nothing on radar in our area Sunday evening.

Forecast highlights…

*** Low humidity, gusty winds, and drying fuels are leading to critical fire conditions. RED FLAG WARNINGS Monday and Tuesday. FIRE WEATHER WATCH for Wednesday. ***

Sunday through next Sunday… The ridge will move to our east while a trough skirts to our north. The jet stream will sink south and help tighten our gradient. This means gusty winds each afternoon and dry conditions.

Tuesday the trough will be closest and bring us a little more instability leading to a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.

Monday through Wednesday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.

Thursday highs will be in the high 70s to the mid 80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Friday through next Sunday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Winds…

Monday afternoon gusts will be around 30mph.

Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 35-40mph.

Wednesday afternoon gusts will be 30-35mph.

Thursday through next Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 30mph.

*NBM wind gusts Wednesday at noon shows 38mph near Pagosa and 50-55mph in our mountains.*

*NBM precip to late next Sunday evening shows 0.01” near Pagosa Springs and up to 0.10” in our mountains.*

14 Jun to 22 Jun… The pattern will try to get more active, but precip amounts will be light and spotty.

*Euro ensemble precip to 22 Jun shows 0.37 ” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have stayed steady.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 22 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. It’s dry Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon and evening there’s a slight chance for a few spotty showers with light precip amounts. Then it’s mostly dry 11-13 Jun. Starting 14 or 15 June, the pattern will try to get a little more active, but precip amounts remain light. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 22 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
It’s dry through Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon and evening there’s a slight chance for a few spotty showers with light precip amounts. Then it’s dry 11-13 Jun. Starting 14 or 15 June, the pattern will try to get a little more active, but precip amounts remain light.

The next post will be Tuesday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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