Increased fire danger next week…

Standing lenticular clouds over the Sangre de Cristos – pic taken 6/2/2026

Friday – 5 Jun 2026 – 2:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 80, Low: 44, Peak wind: 35mph

Thursday: High: 77, Low: 41, Peak wind: 29mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
75	93 / 1946	34	20 / 1908

Precipitation summary… A few lucky spots got 0.02” of rain, but most of the county stayed dry.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite loop 12:56pm to 1:51pm Friday – Clouds in our area are moving north to south. This means the ridge is to our west and north. It results in “scraps” of rain as the showers move off of the mountains into the Pagosa area. Yellow and orange is dry air. Note that we are on the western edge of the moisture and instability.

*Radar at 2:12pm Friday – Scattered light showers are moving towards the south and south-southeast. So far the showers are producing more wind than rain.*

Forecast highlights…

*** San Juan National Forest fire danger is “VERY HIGH”. ***

*** Friday and Saturday there will be spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Storms will produce more wind than rain. ***

*** Windy, dry, and INCREASED FIRE DANGER Sunday through next Friday. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Friday and Saturday… A weak ridge is over our heads with marginal moisture and marginal instability. A few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely, mostly over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops.

Keep an eye out for smoke from potential lightning fires.

Sunday through next Friday… The ridge will move to our east while a trough skirts to our north. The jet stream will sink south and help tighten our gradient. This means gusty winds each afternoon.

It will also be dry for most of this period. Tuesday is the exception when the trough will be closest and bring us a little more moisture and instability leading to a chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be low and spotty.

*** Low humidity, warm temps, and gusty winds will boost our fire danger. ***

Temps…

Friday night lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.

Saturday through Wednesday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.

Thursday and next Friday highs will be in the high 70s to the mid 80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Winds…

Friday and Saturday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Isolated higher gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday and Monday, each afternoon gusts will be around 30mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be 35-40mph.

Thursday afternoon gusts will be 30-35mph.

Next Friday afternoon gusts will be around 30mph.

*NBM wind gusts Wednesday at noon shows 39mph near Pagosa and 50-60mph in our mountains.*

*NBM precip to late next Friday evening shows 0.02” near Pagosa Springs and up to 0.25” in our mountains.*

12 Jun to 20 Jun… There is a lot of uncertainty for the this period, but I think we will be mostly dry and warm with highs in the high 70s to high 80s.

*Euro ensemble precip to 20 Jun shows 0.38 ” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended down.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 20 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. It shows light precip amounts today with spotty showers and lower chance for tomorrow. Its’s dry Sunday and Monday. Tuesday afternoon and evening there’s a chance for scattered showers with light precip amounts. Then it’s mostly dry 11-15 Jun. The models are all over the place the last few days, but still lean towards mostly dry. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 20 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
It shows light precip amounts today with spotty showers and a lower chance for showers tomorrow. Its’s dry Sunday and Monday. Tuesday afternoon and evening there’s a chance for scattered showers with light precip amounts. Then it’s mostly dry 11-15 Jun. The models are all over the place the last few days, but still lean towards mostly dry.

The next post will be Sunday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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