Isolated Thunderstorms in the Area

Typical storm that approaches us from the northwest – we just get scraps. Folks on North Piedra by county line recorded .03″ & .12″ of rain.  – pic taken 6/03/2026

Wednesday – 03 June 2026 – 7:40pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 79, Low: 44, Peak wind: 35mph

Tuesday: High: 80, Low: 39, Peak wind: 29mph

Monday: High: 79, Low: 35, Peak wind: 24mph

Sunday: High: 72, Low: 32, Peak wind: 20mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7486 / 19463420 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There was no recorded precipitation on Monday or Tuesday. This afternoon from 1pm to 3pm, a thunderstorm moved across the area dropping .03″ & .12″ of rain on North Piedra by county line. Then is calmed itself till it got farther from the mountains and the lee side affect and reformed. Steven Field reported light rain from 1:15pmto 2:35pm and a few gusts to 35mph associated with the outflow from the cell.

Current satellite and radar…

Sat 3 Jun
Water vapor satellite Wednesday afternoon – Area of low pressure in Baja area is pushing moisture into out area as upper level disturbances are moving in from the northwest destabilizing the airmass. High pressure dominates the west coast.
Radar 1910
Radar valid at 7:10pm. Showers are moving though the county. Precip amounts are light.

Forecast highlights…

*** San Juan National Forest fire danger is “VERY HIGH”. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect. ***

*** Today through Saturday and next Tuesday spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be light. ***

*** Chance for “dry lightning” this week. Keep an eye out for new fires. ***

Forecast details…

Today through Saturday… A “monsoon-like” pattern will try to set up. We’ll be Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy.

An area of low pressure in the Baja area is moving moisture into the southwest. With a minor ridge over our area, the resultant flow is northwest so conditions are marginal with just a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.

We could see “dry lightning” and need to keep an eye out for new fires.

Winds: Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Expect isolated gusts to 35mph associated with the thunderstorm cells.

Temps… mid 70s to the low 80s. However, Saturday will be warmest days with highs pushing into mid 80s. Lows will be near 40 to the mid 40s.

Sunday and Monday… Drier, more stable air will move into the area from the southwest. We’ll be Partly Cloudy.

Winds: Afternoon winds will increase as a low spins over the Great Basin. Afternoon gusts will be 30mph. Mountain winds gusting to 35 mph.

Temps… mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be low 40 to the mid 40s.

Tuesday… Isolated spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms return. Flow will be from the southwest so they may be better organized. We’ll be Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy.

Winds: Afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph. Expect isolated gusts to 40mph associated with thunderstorm cells. Mountain winds gusting to 40mph.

Temps… mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be near 40 to the mid 40s.

NBM
NBM precip to late Saturday shows 0.03” with 1/4″ over mountains. Precip amounts have dropped significantly.

3 Jun to 18 Jun… It looks more likely that the ridge will set up to our west and cut off our moisture feed and instability. I think we will be mostly dry and warm with highs in the high 70s to high 80s. Euro looks for .35″ and the GFS is looking for .64″ in that time. I think both models are overestimating the precip amounts. I am not seeing anything that will bring us other than light precipitation.

Euro 2 week 1
GFS 2 week

The next post will be Friday afternoon.

– Arleen

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Arleen Pro

Arleen Pro

I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I served in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed several times, including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, Shawn and I found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

© 2026 Pagosa Weather 

Website Design by : Brandon