Mostly dry through Saturday – weak storm next Sunday and Monay…

One of my favorite views along upper Piedra Road – pic taken 4/15/2026

One of my favorite views along upper Piedra Road – pic taken 4/15/2026

Sunday – 19 Apr 2026 – 4:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 48, Low: 24, Peak wind: 37mph

Saturday: High: 58, Low: 15, Peak wind: 18mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6076 / 19542611 / 1963

Precipitation summary… There was no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The ridge, jagged blue line, will move to our east on Monday and then a little moisture and instability will be over the region the rest of the week. There is no precip associated with the clouds over AZ and NM.
Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The ridge, jagged blue line, will move to our east on Monday and then a little moisture and instability will be over the region the rest of the week. There is no precip associated with the clouds over AZ and NM.

There is nothing on radar in our area Sunday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Weak chances for isolated showers through Saturday, but most of us will stay dry. ***

*** Gusty afternoon winds Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. ***

*** Better chance for scattered showers next Sunday and next Monday (26 and 27 Apr). ***

Forecast details…

Monday through Saturday … It’s a wishy-washy, weak weather pattern with the ridge to our east, upper-level southwest flow, and a little instability and moisture. Consider yourself lucky if you see a few raindrops, but I expect most of us to stay dry.

On Wednesday winds will gust to nearly 40mph as a trough approaches northern Colorado.

On Thursday and Friday temps will be 5-10 degrees cooler and afternoon winds will remain gusty.

Next Sunday and next Monday (26 and 27 Apr)… A low pressure system will move through the southwest US. An influx of moisture and instability will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Snow levels will be above 8,500ft.

My way too early and uncertain precip forecast…

Mountains above 9,000ft; 3-7” of snow

Pagosa Springs area: 0.10” to 0.30” of rain. Folks above 8,000ft could see a few snowflakes mixed with the rain,

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-60s to the low 70s and the lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday highs will be in the mid-50s to the low 60s and *** lows will be in the low to high 20s ***.

Next Sunday and next Monday highs will be in the low to high 50s and *** lows will be in the low to high 20s ***.

Winds…

Monday, and Tuesday each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-35mph in the high country.

Wednesday afternoon gusts will be 30-40mph in the Pagosa area and 45-55mph in the high country.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, each afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph in the Pagosa area and 35-45mph in the high country.

Next Sunday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa area and 30-40mph in the high country.

NBM precip to next Monday evening (27 Apr) shows 0.07” near Pagosa and up 0.60” in our mountains. Most of this is expected next Sunday and Monday.
NBM precip to next Monday evening (27 Apr) shows 0.07” near Pagosa and up 0.60” in our mountains.
Most of this is expected next Sunday and Monday.

26 Apr to 4 May… A weak storm is expected to move through 26 and 27 Apr. The rest of period looks active with light precip amounts, but there is a lot of uncertainty. I think that we’ll be mostly dry.

Euro ensemble precip to 4 May shows 1.07” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have been bouncing around the last 2 days.
Euro ensemble precip to 4 May shows 1.07” in the Pagosa area.
Precip amounts have been bouncing around for the last 2 days.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 4 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. It’s mostly dry through Saturday and then there’s a weak storm next Sunday and next Monday. The rest of the period could be active, but precip amounts are light and there’s a lot of uncertainty.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 4 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
It’s mostly dry through Saturday and then there’s a weak storm next Sunday and next Monday. The rest of the period could be active, but precip amounts are light and there’s a lot of uncertainty.

The next post will be on Tuesday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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