Elevated fire danger this weekend – record high temps next week…

Tommy enjoyed his morning at the lake! – pic taken 3/12/2026

Friday – 13 Mar 2026 – 5:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 63, Low: 25, Peak wind: 20mph

Thursday: High: 62, Low: 20, Peak wind: 20mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
48	66 / 1943	14	-10 / 1909

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Friday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The high will slowly get stronger. By the middle of next week, it will park over southern AZ and cause record high temps across the region.

There is nothing on radar in our area Friday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun, dry, and warm for much of the next two weeks. ***

*** This weekend gusty winds and low humidity may lead to high fire danger. ***

*** Record high temps next week. ***

Forecast details…

Saturday through the next Sunday (22 Mar)… The “hell high” will build over the southwest US. It will park over southern AZ Tuesday through next Saturday. The storm track will be well to our north.

We’ll have lots of sun and temps will be 20-25 degrees above average. Record high temps are likely next week.

Temps…

Saturday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to the low 30s.

Sunday highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Monday highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to the low 30s.

Tuesday highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Wednesday, through next Sunday (22 Mar) highs will be in the low 70s to near 80 and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

Winds…

*** Saturday and Sunday, each afternoon gusts will be 30-35mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 40-50mph in the high country. Afternoon humidity will be in the mid to high teens. Fire danger could be high. ***

Monday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-35mph in the high country.

Tuesday and through next weekend, each afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph in the Pagosa Springs area and around 25mph in the high country.

These are two of my favorite products for high and low temps in our area. They are read left to right. The NBM on the left is a couple of degrees warmer than the Euro ensemble on the right, but both expect record high temps 19-23 Mar. *** Note: Our record high for the month of March is 73 set on 19 Mar 1907, 23 Mar 1940, and 25 Mar 1940. *** — These are two of my favorite products for high and low temps in our area. They are read left to right. The NBM on the left is a couple of degrees warmer than the Euro ensemble on the right, but both expect record high temps 19-23 Mar.
*** Note: Our record high for the month of March is 73 set on 19 Mar 1907, 23 Mar 1940, and 25 Mar 1940. ***

20 Mar to 28 Mar… Towards the end of this period the ridge will flatten and might allow a little bit of moisture to move through, but I’m pessimistic. I expect most of this period to be warm and dry.

*Euro ensemble precip to 28 Mar shows 0.13” in the Pagosa area. The storm track will be to our north and we’ll be dry most of this period.*

*Euro ensemble total snow for Wolf Creek to 28 Mar shows 1.4”.*

The next post will be on Sunday.

We hope to see you at “The world’s shortest St Patrick’s Day Parade” on Saturday, March 14th at 11:15am at St Patrick’s Episcopal Church, 225 S. Pagosa Blvd.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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