Lots of sun and mostly dry for the next 10-14 days…

Tommy was a happy pup in the snow yesterday – Pic taken 12/3/2025

Thursday – 4 Dec 2025 – 1:15pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 35, Low: 14, Peak Wind: 7mph

Wednesday: High: 29, Low: 22, Peak Wind: 16mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
44	64 / 1906	9	-19 / 1952

Precipitation summary… I WAY under-forecast this storm! It was an “equal opportunity” storm with Wolf Creek reporting 12” – similar to the higher reports in the Pagosa area.

*CoCoRaHS snow totals in Archuleta County ranged from 5.6” to 11.2”.*

Current satellite and radar…

Visual satellite Thursday around noon – Look closely. If it’s moving, it’s clouds. If it's not moving, it’s snow. This storm left a nice swath of snow over much of Colorado and northern New Mexico. Scattered low clouds are slow to clear out in the Pagosa area. — Visual satellite Thursday around noon – Look closely. If it’s moving, it’s clouds. If it’s not moving, it’s snow. This storm left a nice swath of snow over much of Colorado and northern New Mexico.
*Scattered low clouds are slow to clear out in the Pagosa area.*

There is nothing on radar in our area Thursday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Saturday there is a slight chance for a few scattered snowflakes. Our mountains could get an inch. ***

*** Lots of sun and mostly dry through 15 Dec. ***

Forecast details…

Thursday afternoon through the following weekend… Saturday a trough will move through northern CO and give us a few more clouds and a few scattered snowshowers along the The Divide.

Otherwise, a Rex block will set up off the southern West Coast and keep the dreaded, dry flow out of the northwest over us. Temps will slowly warm above average.

Temps…

Thursday highs will be near 30 to the high 30s. Thursday night lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens.

Friday and Saturday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens.

Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.

Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to the low 50s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.

Next Thursday through the following weekend highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Winds…

Afternoon peak winds will be 10-15mph each day.

*The NWS NDFD snow forecast zoomed into Archuleta County shows around an inch near Wolf Creek and none for Pagosa on Saturday.*

*NBM snow to 14 Dec at 11pm – Our mountains might get an inch of snow this Saturday, but we stay mostly dry. The northwest flow pattern favors the northern CO mountains.*

The 8-14 day period… Upper level flow will remain in a La Nina-like pattern. The storm track over our region will be out of the northwest which means northern CO is favored and we might get a few scraps.

There are signs that the pattern could get more active towards the end of this period, but it’s not too encouraging.

This is the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.22”” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.40”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble 0.47”. In the bottom right, Canadian ensemble shows 0.17”.

*Euro ensemble 15-day snow for Wolf Creek shows 3.5”. This is quite discouraging.*

The next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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