Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms through Friday…

Clouds building over Alberta Park Reservoir this afternoon – Pic taken 7/29/2025

Tuesday – 29 Jul 2025 – 7:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Monday was 86, and on Tuesday it was 81. The low this morning was 57. The cold spots were near 50.

The minimum relative humidity Monday afternoon was 12% and Tuesday afternoon it was 23%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Monday was 25mph and on Tuesday it was 23mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	92 / 1947	47	30 / 1913

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip on Sunday but a few folks did pretty good on Monday.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Tuesday morning ranged from zero to 0.26”.*

Fire and smoke…

As of Tuesday afternoon, The Rim Road Fire west of Ignacio is at 97 acres and is 35% contained.

As of Tuesday evening, the Elkhorn Fire north of Durango is 323 acres and is 5% contained.

Thankfully the air is clear, and air quality is good across Archuleta County.

Forecast discussion…

Visual satellite and lightning roughly 5:40pm to 6:40pm Tuesday – There is some lightning in southwest CO and northwest NM. The smoke plumes are impressive from the Dragon Bravo Fire in northern AZ and the Monroe Canyon Fire in central UT. Thankfully that smoke is missing us! — *Visual satellite and lightning roughly 5:40pm to 6:40pm Tuesday – There is some lightning in southwest CO and northwest NM.*

*The smoke plumes are impressive from the Dragon Bravo Fire in northern AZ and the Monroe Canyon Fire in central UT. Thankfully that smoke is missing us!*

*Radar at 7:06pm Tuesday – There is a weakening shower over south-central Archuleta County and another one near Wolf Creek Pass. Thunderstorms moved through Farmington and Broomfield NM this evening.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Fairly active through Friday. Just a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm on Saturday. Dry Sunday through next Tuesday. The 8-15 day period does not look encouraging. ***

*** Recent rainfall across Pagosa Country has varied considerably. Fire danger remains high. New lightning fires are possible. If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Tuesday through next Tuesday… The monsoon plume will funnel across the region through Friday. It looks like it will cut off again next weekend and through the first part of next week.

More details… Tuesday through Friday, moisture and instability will be moderate and then taper off Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday moisture and instability will be low.

And what does that mean? A coin toss for showers and thunderstorms through Friday and then just a slight chance on Saturday. Sunday through next Tuesday will be dry.

Temps…

Tuesday night lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Wednesday through Friday highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Saturday through next Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts through Friday will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm. Saturday through next Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

*NBM precip to next Tuesday evening shows 0.21” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.75” in our mountains. Precip amounts will vary considerably.*

The 8-14 day period… A weak monsoon pattern with weak moisture and weak instability will set up. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms most afternoons. Precip amounts will be mostly light.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 13 Aug at 6am shows 0.44” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.07”. Let’s hope the GFS is right! Precip amounts will vary considerably.

*The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 40-50% chance for below average precip for us.*

Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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