Fairly active, a lull, and then fairly active…

Love waking up to views like this! – Pic taken 7/21/2025

Monday – 21 Jul 2025 – 7:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Saturday was 80, and on Sunday it was missing. The low this morning is missing. The cold spots were in the high 40s.

The minimum relative humidity Saturday afternoon was 28% and Sunday afternoon it was missing.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Saturday was 29mph and on Sunday it was missing.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	93 / 1945	46	35 / 1958

Precipitation summary… Sunday afternoon precip reports were light. A few folks got a decent soaking Saturday afternoon.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Sunday morning range from zero to 0.48”.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Monday morning range from zero to 0.03”.*

Fires, smoke, and air quality…

There were a few new fires reported yesterday, but they were quickly contained.

*The smoke and AQI map Monday evening shows that the smoke is minimal, and air quality is good.*

Forecast discussion…

*Water vapor satellite loop roughly 5:30pm to 6:30pm Monday – We’ve got decent monsoon moisture, but we’re on the edge of the unstable air.*

Radar at 6:38pm Monday – There is a shower over the northwest and southeast corners of the county. Showers and thunderstorms are moving towards the northeast. Radar lines up well with the satellite loop above showing that we are on the edge of the unstable air.

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Similar trend through Wednesday evening. Less active Thursday through Sunday. More active next week. ***

*** Fire danger will remain high until our forests get a good soaking. New lightning fires are possible. If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Monday through next Monday… The weak monsoon plume will wobble back and forth across the region.

More details… Moderate moisture will stick with us through Wednesday and then moisture will decrease Thursday through Monday. Moisture will increase again the rest of next week.

Instability is moderate through Thursday, and then low Friday through Monday. Instability will become moderate again the rest of next week.

And what does that mean? A coin toss for you to get an afternoon shower or thunderstorm through Wednesday, just a slight chance Thursday through Monday, and then a coin toss the rest of next week.

Temps… Tuesday through Thursday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Friday through Monday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

*NBM precip to next Monday evening shows 0.07” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.60” in our mountains. Precip amounts will vary considerably.*

The 8-14 day period… I see potential for an increase in monsoon activity starting the 29^th or 30^th but it isn’t the big soaking that we need. We’ll continue to see hit and miss showers and thunderstorms most afternoons. Precip amounts will vary considerably.

*On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 5 Aug at 6am shows 1.11” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.08”.*

The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows us on the edge of "below normal" and “near normal” precip. — *The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows us on the edge of “below normal” and “near normal” precip.*

I’ll try to get a post out on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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