Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorm through the weekend…

Love being treated to these fantastic sunsets after a storm! – pic taken 5/5/2025

Love being treated to these fantastic sunsets after a storm! – pic taken 5/5/2025

Wednesday – 7 May 2025 – 8:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Monday was 48, and on Tuesday it was 46. The low this morning was 28.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Monday was 30mph and on Tuesday it was 22mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6684 / 19472813 / 1975

Precipitation summary… That was a good and much needed soaker!

I estimate that the Wolf Creek area got 15-20”.

CoCoRaHS 3-day precip reports ranged from 1.11” to 2.38”. *** The average precip for the month of May is 1.26”. ***
CoCoRaHS 3-day precip reports ranged from 1.11” to 2.38”.
*** The average precip for the month of May is 1.26”. ***
CoCoRaHS 3-day snowfall reports ranged from a trace to 5”. *** The average snowfall for the month of May is 1.1”. ***
CoCoRaHS 3-day snowfall reports ranged from a trace to 5”.
*** The average snowfall for the month of May is 1.1”. ***
I measured 15” of new snow at the Lobo Overlook parking area Wednesday morning.
I measured 15” of new snow at the Lobo Overlook parking area Wednesday morning.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Wednesday evening – Moisture is lingering in cyclonic, marginally unstable air.
Water vapor satellite Wednesday evening – Moisture is lingering in cyclonic, marginally unstable air.

There were a couple of weak showers over southeast Archuleta County that were moving towards the south.

Forecast highlights…

*** Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. ***

*** Gusty afternoon winds are back next week. ***

Thursday through Sunday… A weak ridge will slowly move over the region. There will be less moisture, and we’ll remain marginally unstable, but we will see scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Thursday highs be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Friday through Sunday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be 15-20mph, but thunderstorms and strong showers will produce stronger gusts for brief periods.

WPC precip through Sunday evening shows 0.46” near Pagosa, around 0.75” near Wolf Creek Pass, and up to 1” in the south San Juans. This is spotty, convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.
WPC precip through Sunday evening shows 0.46” near Pagosa, around 0.75” near Wolf Creek Pass, and up to 1” in the south San Juans. This is spotty, convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.

Monday through Wednesday… The ridge will move to our east, upper-level southwest flow with increase, and we’ll dry out. There’s a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. I think most of us will be dry.

Temps… Highs Monday will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. Highs Tuesday will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Highs Wednesday will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

The 8-14 day period… The weather pattern will get less active with just a slight chance for spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. We’ll be playing the rain lottery.

The next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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