Lots of sun and warmer this week…

Spring tulips in the fresh snow – pic taken 4/20/2025 by Nancy Green

Sunday – 20 Apr 2025 – 5pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Friday was 43, and on Saturday it was 36. The low this morning was 19. The cold spots were around 10.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Friday was 29mph and on Saturday it was 7mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
60	78 / 1979	25	11 / 1941

Precipitation summary… This system was a little cooler than I expected so most of the precip fell as snow. Temps above freezing each afternoon melted much of the snow as it fell.

The good news is that much of the Pagosa Springs area got 0.50” to 0.70” of liquid equivalent.

Based on snotel data, I estimate that Wolf Creek Pass area got 14-16”.

20 Apr 2025 pm CoCoRaHS 2 day snowfall — *CoCoRaHS 2-day snowfall reports range from 2” to 7.5”.*

*CoCoRaHS 2-day liquid equivalent precip reports range from 0.35” to 0.78”.*

Snowpack for the San Juan Mountain basins is at 44%. The Upper San Juan snotel is at 24% and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 50%. — *Snowpack for the San Juan Mountain basins is at 44%.*
*The Upper San Juan snotel is at 24% and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 50%.*

*This week’s drought map indicates that most of Archuleta County has “severe drought” conditions.*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – Yesterday’s system has moved east into the central plains. Behind it we have drier flow out of the west-northwest. The ridge, jagged blue line, will give us lots of sun and warmer temps for the next few days. — *Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon –* Yesterday’s system has moved east into the central plains. Behind it we have drier flow out of the west-northwest. The ridge, jagged blue line, will give us lots of sun and warmer temps for the next few days.

There is nothing on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun and warmer this week. ***

*** Spotty afternoon showers, mostly over the mountains, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. ***

Sunday through Thursday… A transient ridge will move through and keep us dry and give us partly cloudy skies.

Temps…

Sunday night low will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Monday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Tuesday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

Friday through Sunday… Upper-level flow will become more southwest and unstable. There isn’t much moisture, but instability could kick up a few scattered showers each afternoon, mostly over the mountains.

The best chance for precip is Saturday afternoon when a weak trough moves through. Lucky spots could get up to 0.05” of precip.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph.

WPC precip to next Sunday at 6pm shows 0.02” near Pagosa and up to 0.10” in our mountains. A couple of other forecast models shows around 0.50” of precip. I hope they’re right, but I don’t buy it.

The 8-14 day period… The models are wavering between a dry pattern and an active pattern with a couple of chances for light precip. It could go either way.

*Euro ensemble precip on the top to 5 May at 6am shows 0.77” for Pagosa and GFS ensemble on the bottom shows 0.66”. I don’t see any big storms on the horizon.*

The next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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