Near record high temps through Tuesday…

6 more weeks of winter? Yeah right!

6 more weeks of winter? Yeah right!

Sunday – 2 Feb 2025 – 4:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Friday was 46 and on Saturday it was 48.  The low this morning was 21. The cold spots dipped into the mid-teens.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Friday afternoon was 5mph and on Saturday it was 10mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4053 / 19353-37 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – It’s dry over of much of the desert southwest. The ridge is keeping the jetstream and lots of moisture to our north.
Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – It’s dry over of much of the desert southwest. The ridge is keeping the jetstream and lots of moisture to our north.

There is nothing on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun, dry, and near record high temps through Tuesday. ***

*** The Wednesday/Thursday storm has gone poof. ***

*** A weak storm is possible next weekend. ***

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday… The storm track has shifted back to our north.  We’ll see a lot of blue sky and temps will be 10-15 degrees above average.

Clouds will increase Tuesday as the ridge moves east and upper-level southwest flow increases.

Temps…

Sunday highs are in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the low 50s to near 60 and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph on Monday. Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Wednesday… A weak trough will move through northern Colorado.  We’ll see a few more clouds, gusty afternoon winds, and a spotty shower over the mountains. I don’t expect snow to accumulate.

Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph. In the mountains, gusts will be 35-45mph.

NBM snow to Thursday at 5am shows a few snowflakes over our mountains. The northern mountains will be favored again.
NBM snow to Thursday at 5am shows a few snowflakes over our mountains.
The northern mountains will be favored again.

Thursday and Friday… A transient ridge will keep us dry while patches of mid and high clouds move through. Temps will remain above average.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Winds… Gusts Thursday afternoon will be around 20mph.  Friday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph. In the mountains, gusts will be 35-45mph.

Saturday through ?… The jetstream will dip a little farther south.  If we’re lucky, more moisture will move into our area, and we’ll get some precip. Stay tuned for details.

Euro ensemble precip to 5am on 17 Feb shows 0.81” in the Pagosa area. A west and northwest trajectory will push a lot of moisture into the coastal mountains and Pacific Northwest. We need the pattern to shift a little more south. The inset shows the timing from left to right.  It’s dry through the week and then gets more active next week.
Euro ensemble precip to 5am on 17 Feb shows 0.81” in the Pagosa area. A west and northwest trajectory will push a lot of moisture into the coastal mountains and Pacific Northwest. We need the pattern to shift a little more south. The inset shows the timing from left to right.  It’s dry through the week and then gets more active next week.

The next forecast post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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