Snowpack is rough in southwest Colorado and much of the Four Corners region
Monday – 3 Feb 2025 – 8:45am
January Summary…
The average high for January is 37 and the average low is 2. The record high of 59 occurred on 1 January 1981. The record low of -42 occurred on 13 January 1963. January precip averages 2.08″ and average snowfall is 26.4″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 3.67″ of precip and 76.1″ snow.
At Stevens Field the highest temp was 52 on 3 Jan and the lowest temp was -9 on 21 Jan.
How did we do?
Note that temps were below average for most of the country.
For the season 119″ has fallen – 50% of average
Snowpack and Drought…
The Upper San Juan snotel is at 41% of the seasonal median and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 61%
The US drought map on the bottom shows that much of the country is experiencing drought conditions.
February Outlook…
The average high for February is 42 and the average low is 9. The record high of 60 occurred on 27 February 1988. The record low of -39 occurred on 1 February 1916. February precip averages 2.02″ and average snowfall is 18.9″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.30″ of precip and 68.7″ snow.
The precip outlook on the right shows equal chances for average precip.
And what do we expect?
Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…
The ridge to the west has been our nemesis this winter, shunting all the storm energy and moisture to our north. My forecast has stunk this winter making me a little gun shy.
The long range forecast models expect a more active pattern for February.
The QBO is still westerly – a positive for us. That should help negate the impacts of LaNina based on past correlation. The ENSO temperatures are cooler in our focus area for an average of -.9 degrees which is a La Nina pattern – a negative for us. Under such patterns we tend to be south of the storm track.
The Arctic oscillation is negative and colder airmasses are ejecting to the northeast US this winter – a negative for us. We like to see arctic outbreaks over Alaska to impact our weather.
The big positive for the month is the MJO which has made its way around the globe and is currently strengthening and is expected to arrive in our target quadrant about mid-February.
Perhaps most importantly, I have to drive to the Front Range. This just about guarantees we’ll get some snow!
All of the models expect a weak system or two at the beginning of the month and again at the end of the month. The middle of the month should be the most active.
My forecast for February is for average snow and for average temperatures.
A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.
Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!
- Shawn
