Spotty snowflakes through Friday evening…

Grinch and Max were happy to see snow on Christmas Day! – pic taken 12/25/2024

Thursday – 26 Dec 2024 – 3:15pm

The past…

There has been no data from Stevens Field since 11:19am on 9 December.

Highs yesterday were mostly in the mid to high 30s and lows this morning were mostly in the low to high single digits.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
38	56 / 1980	3	-30 / 1911

Precipitation summary… It was great to see snowflakes on Christmas Day! Wolf Creek reported 4” of snow.

*CoCoRaHS snow reports across Archuleta County ranged from 0.3” to 3.5”. Our friends in Chromo area were the Christmas snow lottery winners!*

Forecast discussion…

Satellite on Thursday afternoon – This is a sloppy pattern that won’t impact us much. The trough, yellow dashed line, is moving west. There isn’t much storm energy with the southern part of the trough. The yellow arrows show the jet stream. That big slug of moisture off the coast will bring the coastal mountains another round of heavy snow.

*Radar at 2:38pm Thursday – Bands of light precip are moving through the Four Corners area.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Spotty snowflakes Thursday and Friday. ***

*** Dry with seasonal temps through the weekend. ***

Thursday and Friday… Moisture will continue to stream through the region but there won’t be much storm energy. A weak upper-level trough will move through Friday evening and then clouds will clear and isolated snowshowers will end.

The best chance for snow is Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

Snow amounts…

Near Pagosa: zero to a half inch

Near Wolf Creek: 1-3”

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph

Temps… Thursday night lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Friday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to mid-teens.

The “official” NWS snow forecast shows less than 1” near Pagosa and 1-3” near Wolf Creek. The central and northern mountains are favored. — *The “official” NWS snow forecast shows less than 1” near Pagosa and 1-3” near Wolf Creek.*
*The central and northern mountains are favored.*

Saturday through Monday… A flat ridge will be in control with mostly dry upper-level flow out of the west-northwest. We’ll see occasional patches of mid and high clouds as weak troughs skirt to our north.

Winds… Saturday and Sunday afternoon peaks will 10-15mph. Monday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs will be near 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Tuesday… A weak trough will move through northern CO from the northwest. We’ll see a few more clouds and a few spotty snowflakes over our mountains.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low single digits to low teens.

Wednesday and Thursday… A ridge will build over the region and bring us dry flow out of the northwest.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 10mph.

Temps… Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to mid-teens. Highs Thursday will be near 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

The 8-15 day period… The pattern will stay active along the West Coast and Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately it looks like a pretty typical La Nina pattern. We’ll pick up a few “scraps”. I don’t see anything significant on the horizon.

The are ensemble precip forecast products to 5am on 10 Jan. In the upper left the Euro shows 0.14”. In the upper right the Euro AI shows 0.33”. In the bottom left the GFS ensemble shows 0.30”. In the bottom right the Canadian ensemble shows 0.32”. Notes: The models agree on the overall pattern. Upper-level will be we be mostly out the west and northwest which doesn’t favor us. — The are ensemble precip forecast products to 5am on 10 Jan. In the upper left the Euro shows 0.14”. In the upper right the Euro AI shows 0.33”. In the bottom left the GFS ensemble shows 0.30”. In the bottom right the Canadian ensemble shows 0.32”.

*The models agree on the overall pattern. Upper-level flow will be out the west and northwest which doesn’t favor us.*

My next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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