A spotty shower or thunderstorm today – nice for a while…

Patches of gold aspens on Pagosa Peak – pic taken 9/27/2024

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Friday – 27 Sep 2024 – 2:30pm

Chile Cha Cha…

Remember to stop by & buy your Pagosa Weather HAT! And meet UNO – an adorable Humane Society pup looking for a home!

The 18th Annual Mountain Chile Cha Cha will be this Saturday, September 28rd, at the Town Park at Hermosa St and Hot Springs Blvd. The highlight is the Patty Aragon Green Chile Classic cook-off.

Come meet Uno! — ***Come meet Uno at the Chile Cha Cha!***

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Wednesday was 77 and on Thursday it was 79. The low this morning was 47. The cold spots dipped into the high 30s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Wednesday was 8mph and on Thursday it was 17mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
70	82 / 1963	32	13 / 1993

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite loop from roughly 12:30pm to 1:30pm Friday afternoon – A weak trough is trying to squeak through the ridge. There’s just enough moisture and instability to develop showers over the mountains.

Radar at 2:06pm Friday afternoon – A couple of weak showers and thunderstorm or two have developed over the eastern part of the county and along The Divide. They are nearly stationary so one will have develop over your head if you want a few raindrops.

Forecast highlights…

*** Cold spots could flirt with freezing each night. ***

*** Lots of sun and pleasant fall temps for a while. ***

Friday through Thursday… A blocking high pressure has set up over the southwest US. For most of this period we’ll have lots of sun and temps 5-10 degrees above average.

Friday a weak trough is causing just enough instability and moisture for a spotty shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to mid-40s.

*NBM precip through Friday evening shows less than 0.05” along the mountains Friday afternoon.*

The 8-14 day period… The blocking high will keep us mostly dry, with lots of sun, and temps slightly above average.

*Euro ensemble precip to 12 Oct at 6am on the left expects 0.20” and GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 0.25”. I think it’s going to be pretty dry for the next two weeks.*

The next forecast post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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