Scattered afternoon storms through Wednesday – breezy on Thursday…

Geese flying through a pretty sunrise – pic taken 9/8/2024

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Monday – 9 Sep 2024 – 3:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Sunday afternoon was 79. As of 3pm Monday, the high so far is 78. The low this morning was 44. The cold spots dipped into the mid-30s.

The minimum relative humidity Sunday was 16% with a dew point of 28. Monday it was 17% with a dew point of 27.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Sunday afternoon was 29mph and on Monday it was 20mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
76	88 / 1959	39	19 / 1941

Precipitation summary… A couple of “slow movers” soaked a few lucky spots the last couple of days.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from this morning (Monday) ranged from zero to 0.14”. Arleen was the rain lottery winner north of Turkey Springs.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Sunday morning ranged from zero to 0.37”. Chuck was the rain lottery winner in town.*

Forecast discussion…

*Satellite and lightning loop roughly 2-3pm Monday – Moisture and instability are enough to kick up scattered storms across the Four Corners region.*

*Radar at 3:20pm Monday – Scattered showers are mostly over the mountains. They are moving slowly towards the southeast.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Scattered storms each afternoon through Wednesday. ***

*** Breezy on Thursday. ***

*** Thursday through next weekend lots of sun, seasonal temps, and dry. ***

*** Potential for a few snowflakes above timberline on 17 Sep! ***

Rest of Monday through Wednesday… The subtropical high and ridge will waver around the Four Corners region. There is enough moisture and instability to kick up a few storms each afternoon.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-20mph. Gusts will be stronger near storms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to the high 40s.

Euro forecast model precip for this period shows 0.07” near Pagosa Springs and up to 0.50” in our mountains. It’s spotty convective showery precip so any single storm can drop this amount over a small area.

Thursday through next weekend… A low-pressure system will slide well to our north on Thursday. Clouds and precip will miss us to the north, but we’ll get gusty winds.

Drier, more stable air will move in from the southwest and west. We’ll have lots of sun, seasonal temps, and remain dry.

Winds… Thursday afternoon and evening gusts will be 25-30mph. Friday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. Saturday and Sunday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to high 40s.

The 8-14 day period… The subtropical ridge will weaken and move southeast into TX. The forecast models are hinting at a strong low-pressure system sliding to our north around Tuesday the 17th. We won’t get much precip but could see snow above timberline! It’s a typical early fall weather pattern.

Temps will be near average.

The Euro ensemble precip to 24 Sep at 6am on the left expects 1.16” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 0.96”. It’s good to see the models getting closer on their solutions. The models expect a strong low-pressure system moving through the western US roughly 16-18 Sep. The best storm energy and moisture is expected to stay to our north. If the system takes a more southerly route, we’ll see more precip. The forecast models struggle during the fall transition season. — *The Euro ensemble precip to 24 Sep at 6am on the left expects 1.16” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 0.96”. It’s good to see the models getting closer on their solutions.*

The models expect a strong low-pressure system moving through the western US roughly 16-18 Sep. The best storm energy and moisture is expected to stay to our north. If the system takes a more southerly route, we’ll see more precip. The forecast models struggle during the fall transition season.

*Euro ensemble probability of > 1” of snow to next Wednesday at 6pm shows a 50% chance above timberline in our mountains. I don’t expect much.*

The next forecast post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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