Another beautiful Pagosa Country sunset! – pic taken 9/3/2024
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Saturday – 7 Sep 2024 – 4:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Friday afternoon was 79. As of 3:35pm Saturday, the high so far is 78. The low this morning was 45.
Friday morning was the coldest so far with a low at the airfield of 41 while a couple of the cold spots hit 33!
The minimum relative humidity Friday was 19% with a dew point of 33. Saturday it was 20% with a dew point of 33.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Friday afternoon was 9mph and on Saturday it was 16mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 77 | 87 / 1945 | 39 | 27 / 1912 |
Precipitation summary… There was no rain reported this morning.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** A few spotty storms each afternoon through Wednesday. ***
*** Breezy on Thursday. ***
*** Thursday through next weekend lots of sun, seasonal temps, and dry. ***
*** Potential for snow above timberline 16 and 17 Sep! ***
Rest of Saturday through Wednesday… The subtropical high and ridge will waver around the Four Corners region through Wednesday. There is just enough moisture and instability to give us a chance for an isolated storm or two each afternoon.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-20mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.
It’s spotty convective showery precip so any single storm can drop this amount over a small area.
Thursday through next weekend… A low-pressure system will slide well to our north on Thursday. Clouds and precip will miss us to the north, but we’ll get gusty winds.
Drier, more stable air will move in from the southwest and west. We’ll have lots of sun, seasonal temps, and remain dry.
Winds… Thursday afternoon and evening gusts will be 25-30mph. Friday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. Next Saturday and Sunday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s.
The 8-14 day period… The subtropical ridge will weaken and move southeast into TX. The forecast models are hinting at a strong low-pressure system sliding to our north around Tuesday the 17th. We won’t get much precip but could see snow above timberline! It’s a typical early fall weather pattern.
Temps will be near average.
The models hint at a strong low-pressure system moving through the western US roughly 16-18 Sep. Most of the models expect the precip to stay to our north. If the system takes a more southerly route, we’ll see more precip.
Fall is transition season and the forecast models struggle. This system has potential to drop a few snowflakes on our mountains. Either way, I’m excited to be tracking our first fall storm!
The next forecast post will be on Monday.
– Shawn
4 Responses
We really find your seasonal presentations/talks to be informative regarding what to expect in the coming months/season. Do you have a presentation scheduled anytime soon? We’d like to attend.
So glad hear you enjoy our talks. Yes, the winter outlook talk will be October 10th at 6:00pm at the library.
Arleen
Is the La Plata weather radar working yet and feeding info on to the NWS system? Do they have a link to their radar yet?
Harry, the radar is apparently operational. No, there is not a way to access the data yet. I’ve put the question to LaPlata county public relations & not gotten an answer yet. I know the data isn’t making into the NOAA system.
I’ll update everyone here as soon as I get word.
Arleen