More active the second the half of the week…

Another fantastic sunset over Pagosa Country! – pic taken 8/1/2024

Another fantastic sunset over Pagosa Country! – pic taken 8/1/2024

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Sunday – 4 Aug 2024 – 5:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Saturday afternoon was 89 and the high on Sunday was 88. The low this morning was 53.

The minimum relative humidity Saturday was 16% with a dew point of 36. Sunday it was 13% with a dew point of 31.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Saturday afternoon was 22mph and on Sunday it was 17mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8295 / 19404629 / 1950

Precipitation summary… There have been a few scattered storms.  Rain amounts have mostly been less than 0.10” but a few lucky folks have gotten a soaking.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported this morning ranged from zero to 0.17”. The rain lottery winner was Dara in Loma Linda.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Saturday morning ranged from zero to 0.31”. The rain lottery winner was Leah and Jeb in Meadows.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Saturday morning ranged from zero to 0.31”. The rain lottery winner was Leah and Jeb in Meadows.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported this morning ranged from zero to 0.17”. The rain lottery winner was Dara in Loma Linda.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop 3:00pm to 4:30pm Sunday afternoon – The high is nearly over our heads and limiting storm activity in our area. So far on Sunday afternoon, storms have been on the other side of The Divide.
Water vapor satellite loop 3:00pm to 4:30pm Sunday afternoon – The high is nearly over our heads and limiting storm activity in our area. So far on Sunday afternoon, storms have been on the other side of The Divide.
Radar Sunday afternoon at 4:34pm – Things have been quiet over Archuleta County this afternoon.
Radar Sunday afternoon at 4:34pm – Things have been quiet over Archuleta County this afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** The chance for afternoon storms will slowly ramp up each day. The second half of the week will be more active. ***

*** All storms are capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***

Rest of Sunday through Saturday… Sunday the high is nearly over our heads and limiting instability and showers in our area. There is a slight chance for a storm Sunday evening and a slightly better chance on Monday.

The high will continue to wobble over the region but will move farther away which will allow instability to increase through the week. Starting Tuesday, and continuing through the rest of the week, there is a good chance for soaking storms.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Sunday and Monday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s. Tuesday through Thursday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s. Friday and Saturday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to the mid-50s.

NBM precip to late Saturday evening expects 1.06” in the Pagosa area. I think this is a little high for most of us, but amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to late Saturday evening expects 1.06” in the Pagosa area. I think this is a little high for most of us, but amounts will vary considerably.

8-14 day precip… Monsoon moisture will decrease a bit as a low pressure trough moves through the Pacific NW and temporarily knocks down our subtropical ridge. We’ll continue to see afternoon storms, but they will be more hit and miss.

Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6am 19 Aug expects 1.60” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 2.44”.  That’s a big difference but amounts will vary considerably.
Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6am 19 Aug expects 1.60” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 2.44”.  That’s a big difference but amounts will vary considerably.

The next forecast post will be Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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