It’s time for rain dances!…

Tommy admiring a pretty sunrise – pic taken 8/6/2024

Tommy admiring a pretty sunrise – pic taken 8/6/2024

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Tuesday – 6 Aug 2024 – 9:40am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Monday afternoon was 89 and the high on Tuesday was 90. The low this morning was 55.

The minimum relative humidity Monday was 13% with a dew point of 31. Tuesday it was 15% with a dew point of 37.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Monday afternoon was 17mph and on Tuesday it was 25mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8291 / 19814532 / 1976

Precipitation summary… Much of the county got a few raindrops yesterday. A few lucky folks got a decent soaking over 0.10”.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported this morning ranged from a trace to 0.18”. The rain lottery winner was Arleen just north of Turkey Springs.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported this morning ranged from a trace to 0.18”. The rain lottery winner was Arleen just north of Turkey Springs.

There was no measurable precip reported Monday morning.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Tuesday morning – The high has slipped to our southeast and the monsoon moisture plume is over our heads (outlined in green).
Water vapor satellite Tuesday morning – The high has slipped to our southeast and the monsoon moisture plume is over our heads (outlined in green).

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.  That will change this afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** The chance for afternoon storms will continue to ramp up each day. The second half of the week will be more active. ***

*** All storms are capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Monday… The high has slipped just to our southeast which has allowed the monsoon moisture plume to move over our heads. The high will continue to wobble over the region and the heart of the moisture plume will stay with us.

We’ll see scattered storms each afternoon and into each evening. You won’t get hit every day, but I’m confident that everyone will get a decent soaking during this period.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Tuesday through Thursday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s. Friday through Monday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to the mid-50s.

WPC precip to late Monday evening expects 1.13” in the Pagosa area. Precip will vary considerably. I won’t be surprised to see a single storm drop nearly an inch over a small area in just a short period. 
WPC precip to late Monday evening expects 1.13” in the Pagosa area. Precip will vary considerably. I won’t be surprised to see a single storm drop nearly an inch over a small area in just a short period. 

8-14 day precip… Monsoon moisture will decrease a bit as a low pressure trough moves through the Pacific NW and temporarily knocks down our subtropical ridge. We’ll continue to see afternoon storms, but they will be more hit and miss.

Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6pm 20 Aug expects 2.01” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 2.17”.  It’s all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.
Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6pm 20 Aug expects 2.01” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 2.17”.  It’s all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.

The next forecast post will be Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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