Pagosa Weather JULY SUMMARY & August Outlook

The drought map looks good for southwest Colorado!

The drought map looks good for southwest Colorado!

Friday – 2 Aug 2024 – 4:00pm

July summary…

The average high for July is 83 and the average low is 44. The record high of 99 occurred on 7 July 1989. The record low of 24 occurred on 5 July 1912. Precip averages 2.01″ in July with zero snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 3.61″ of precip and zero snow.

At Stevens Field the highest temp in July was 87 on 14, 15, 30, and 31 July and the lowest temp was 42 on 7 July.

How did we do?

July mean temperature anomalies across Archuleta County were close to average.
July mean temperature anomalies across Archuleta County were close to average.

July mean precip anomalies were near average or slightly above of average for most of Archuleta County.
July mean precip anomalies were near average or slightly above of average for most of Archuleta County.

CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 1.47″ to 3.69″. 20 out of 27 locations had more than the average of 2.01″.
CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 1.47″ to 3.69″. 20 out of 27 locations had more than the average of 2.01″.

We got 12.55″ of precip so far in 2024 – MORE than the average of 11.45″
We got 12.55″ of precip so far in 2024 – MORE than the average of 11.45″

Drought, River Flow, and Lake Levels…

The drought map looks good for southwest Colorado!
The drought map looks good for southwest Colorado!
For July, the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs had a minimum flow of 66cfs on 31 July and a maximum flow of 656cfs on 1 July.
For July, the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs had a minimum flow of 66cfs on 31 July and a maximum flow of 656cfs on 1 July.

Lake levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin currently average 84.3%. Navajo Reservoir is at 69.16% – just a slight drop in the last month.
Lake levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin currently average 84.3%. Navajo Reservoir is at 69.16% – just a slight drop in the last month.

August outlook…

The average high for August is 80 and the average low is 45. The record high of 97 occurred on 5 August 1940. The record low of 28 occurred on 30 August 1978. Precip averages 2.69″ in August with zero snow – our wettest month. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.32″ of precip and zero snow.

The CPC temp outlook for August on the left shows a 70-80% chance for above average temps. The precip outlook on the right expects “equal chances” for average precip.
The CPC temp outlook for August on the left shows a 70-80% chance for above average temps.
The precip outlook on the right expects “equal chances” for average precip.
Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 3.56″ of precip for August and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 3.95″ – Both models expect more than the average of 2.69″.
Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 3.56″ of precip for August and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 3.95″ – Both models expect more than the average of 2.69″.

Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…

Welcome to August, our wettest month! My forecast for August is that we will have average to above average precipitation. My main concern is the ridge setting up to the west of us and putting us under the weaker northwest flow. The primary long range forecast models expect above average precip in our area. Despite the weakened monsoon, the hurricane season is going strong this year. So, we’ll probably be treated to deep tropical moisture from remnants of a tropical storm if we’re lucky. The Eastern pacific is just warming up now and should get more active. That just means more potential moisture to fuel our monsoon storms.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!

  • Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. Would you say Pagosa experienced a Monsoon season this Summer? If so, was it normal, above normal or below normal?

    Reply

    1. Rod, Yes! Pagosa is experiencing a monsoon season this summer! On average monsoon is July, August, and September. As outlined in Shawn’s report it is above average so far. We have two more months to go.

      Arleen

      Reply

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