A classic Pagosa Country sunset. There aren’t too many places as pretty! – pic taken 7/11/2024
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Saturday – 13 July 2024 – 5:15pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Friday afternoon was 81 and the high so far on Saturday is 84. The low this morning was 48.
The minimum relative humidity yesterday was 23% with a dew point of 41. Today it was 18% with a dew point of 35. This is still marginal moisture. For good monsoon action, I’d like to see the dew points around 50.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 28mph. Today’s peak wind so far is 18mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 83 | 98 / 1939 | 44 | 30 / 1941 |
Precipitation summary… Showers and thunderstorms continue to be “spotty”. Most locations get less than a tenth of an inch of precip each day while a few lucky folks get a good soaking.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** A 30-40% chance that you will get hit by a shower or thunderstorm through Sunday and then a 40-60% chance each day next week. ***
*** Storms will be “slow-movers” with erratic movement. ***
*** All storms are capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***
Rest of today through next Saturday… The upper-level high is currently over the Grand Junction/Moab area. It will wobble around the Four Corners region all of next week.
This is not ideal for us but will allow a gradual increase in moisture and instability in our area.
Each morning we’ll wake up to bright blue skies. Then scattered cumulus clouds will build over the mountains during the late morning. By early afternoon, some of those cumulus clouds will grow into showers and a thunderstorm or two. Clouds will decrease each evening and we could be treated to pretty sunsets and a rainbow.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.
Temps… Highs Sunday through Wednesday will be in the low 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Highs Thursday through Saturday will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.
Other forecast models precip total for the same period: Euro: 0.32”, GFS: 1.56”, WPC: 0.43”, Euro AI: 0.34”, Euro ensemble: 0.36”, GFS ensemble: 0.90”, Canadian ensemble: 1.18”.
8-14 day precip… The high will wobble around the region. Monsoon moisture and instability will stick with us.
My next forecast post will be Sunday afternoon.
– Shawn
