Dry for the next week and then “typical” fall storms…

Thanks to all who helped our community during this challenging time! – pic taken 11/4/2026

Sunday – 8 Nov 2026 – 3:15pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 52, Low: 29 Peak wind: 6mph

Saturday: High: 58, Low: 25, Peak wind: 9mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
52	66 / 1934	19	-7 / 1948

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip the last few days.

Current satellite and radar…

*Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – A big ole ridge is keeping the southwest US dry and the storm track to our north.*

There is nothing on radar in our area Sunday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun and dry for the next week. ***

*** More active pattern starting 16/17 Nov. It looks like “typical” fall storms for us. ***

Rest of Sunday through next Sunday… A ridge will be to our west through Friday and keep us mostly sunny and dry.

There will be more clouds next weekend as a low slides to our south, but I expect us to remain dry.

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be mid 20s to low 30s.

Monday through Friday highs will be in the high 50s to mid 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid 30s.

Saturday and next Sunday highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s.

Winds…

Monday through next weekend, each afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph.

*NBM precip to late next Sunday evening shows <0.05” for parts of Archuleta County. A little precip is possible Saturday night, but most models expect us to stay dry.*

16 Nov to 23 Nov… The weather pattern will get more active. The trajectory for the storm pattern will be out of the west so the coastal mountains will get most of the moisture. I just see “typical” fall storms for us.

Euro ensemble precip to 23 Nov shows 1.33” in the Pagosa area. Nearly all of this is expected after 15 Nov. A storm track out of the west favors the coastal mountains. The inter-mountain west will just get scraps.

This is Euro ensemble15-day total snowfall for Wolf Creek – It’s dry through 15 Nov and then gets more active starting around 16 Nov. It expects 15” of snow by 23 Nov. — *This is Euro ensemble 15-day total snowfall for Wolf Creek – It’s dry through 15 Nov and then gets more active starting around 16 Nov. It expects 15” of snow by 23 Nov.*

The next thorough post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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