Concerned about fire danger this weekend…

Love these sunrise pup walks! – pic taken 3/10/2026

Wednesday – 11 Mar 2026 – 3:15pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Monday: High: 59, Low: 20, Peak wind: 29mph

Tuesday: High: 59, Low: 24, Peak wind: 29mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
47	72 / 1989	15	-8 / 1948

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Wednesday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The high will slowly get stronger and move east. By the middle of next week, it will park over AZ and cause record high temps across the region.

There is nothing on radar in our area Wednesday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun, dry, and warm for much of the next two weeks. ***

*** This weekend gusty winds and low humidity may lead to high fire danger. ***

*** Record high temps are likely next week. ***

Forecast details…

Thursday through next Saturday (21 Mar)… The big evil ridge will build over the southwest US. The storm track will be well to our north. We’ll have lots of sun and temps will be 10-15 degrees above average. Record high temps are likely next week.

Temps…

Thursday through Monday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to the low 30s.

Tuesday highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Wednesday, through next Saturday (21 Mar) highs will be in the low 70s to near 80 and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

Winds…

Thursday and Friday, each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-35mph in the high country.

*** Saturday and Sunday, each afternoon gusts will be around 30mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 40-50mph in the high country. Afternoon humidity will be in the mid to high teens. Fire danger could be high. ***

Monday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-35mph in the high country.

Tuesday and next Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be around 15mph in the Pagosa Springs area and around 25mph in the high country.

NBM wind gusts and relative humidity Saturday afternoon are 27mph and 16%. Sunday afternoon they are 28mph and 16%. This could result in high fire danger. — *NBM wind gusts and relative humidity Saturday afternoon are 27mph and 16%. Sunday afternoon they are 28mph and 16%.*
**This could result in high fire danger.**

18 Mar to 26 Mar… The ridge will get stronger and move towards the Four Corners by 19-20 Mar. Towards the end of this period the ridge will flatten and might allow a little bit of moisture to move through, but I’m not optimistic. I expect most of this period to be warm and dry.

*Euro ensemble precip to 26 Mar shows 0.26” in the Pagosa area. The storm track will be to our north and we’ll be dry most of this period.*

*Euro ensemble total snow for Wolf Creek to 26 Mar shows 2.6”.*

The next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

One Response

Mike Zeck says:

March 11, 2026 at 4:38 pm

Last evening (3/10) I participated in and NWS live seminar , Weather 101 from the Nashville office. It was the first steam of the series. This one was titled Fire Weather. It was educational and enlightening to see the connections between meteorology and forest fire controls and mitigations.
Next Tuesday the topic is Severe Storms.

I hope you and Arlene (Tommy too) are doing well.I hope to visit Pagosa Springs soon.
I miss it very much and wish for a safe Spring and Summer season.

Mike Zeck

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