Off and on snow into Wednesday evening – expect slick roads…

CDOT webcam from Wolf Creek Pass on 2 Dec at 4:21pm

CDOT webcam from Wolf Creek Pass on 2 Dec at 4:21pm

Tuesday – 2 Dec 2025 – 4:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Sunday: High: 35, Low: 21, Peak Wind: 8mph

Monday: High: 33, Low: 19, Peak Wind: 20mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4463 / 190610-10 / 1913

Precipitation summary… Light snow fell in the Pagosa Springs area early Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Wolf Creek reported 10” of snow from the last storm.

CoCoRaHS snow totals in Archuleta County from the last storm ranged from 0.5” to 1.5”. Flow was mostly out of the west and northwest which favored the northwest San Juan Mountains.
CoCoRaHS snow totals in Archuleta County from the last storm ranged from 0.5” to 1.5”. Flow was mostly out of the west and northwest which favored the northwest San Juan Mountains.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 3:05pm to 4:05pm Tuesday – We are on the eastern edge of the band clouds ahead of the trough that is currently over central UT. The main trough will move through our area late Wednesday evening.
Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 3:05pm to 4:05pm Tuesday – We are on the eastern edge of the band clouds ahead of the trough that is currently over central UT. The main trough will move through our area late Wednesday evening.
Radar at 4:16pm Tuesday – As usual radar isn’t picking up most of the light snow falling in the area. CDOT cameras show snow falling from Mancos Hill all the way to South Fork.
Radar at 4:16pm Tuesday – As usual radar isn’t picking up most of the light snow falling in the area. CDOT cameras show snow falling from Mancos Hill all the way to South Fork.

Forecast highlights…

*** There is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft. This includes Wolf Creek Pass. Up to 9” of snow is expected by 2am Thursday. ***

*** Light snow is falling across much of the area Tuesday afternoon. Roads could get slick shortly after the sun sets this evening. ***

*** Winter driving conditions will be the worst late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Expect slick roads into Thursday morning. ***

*** It looks like dry weather roughly 5-13 Dec and then the pattern could get more active. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Tuesday… A prefrontal trough will move through southwest Colorado 7-8pm this evening. Light snow snowshowers will end 7-8pm and then hit and miss snow showers are possible through the night, especially over the mountains.

Snow amounts to sunrise Wednesday…

Mountains: 1-2”

Pagosa area: a dusting to 1”

Wednesday through Thursday morning… Another fast-moving trough will move through the area from the northwest.

Timing… Snowshowers will ramp up mid-morning on Wednesday. The best chance for snow is late Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. Hit and miss showers will persist into early Thursday morning, mostly over the mountains.

Snow amounts…

Mountains: 6-10”

Pagosa area: 1-3”

Thursday afternoon through next Wednesday… A Rex block will set up off the southern West Coast and keep the dreaded, dry flow out of the northwest over us. Temps will slowly warm towards average.

Temps…

Wednesday and Thursday highs will be near 30 to the high 30s. Wednesday night lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Thursday night lows will be in the mid-single digits to the mid-teens.

Friday and Saturday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be near 10 to the low 20s.

Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Next Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to the low 50s and lows will be in the

Winds…

Afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph each day.

The “official” NWS snow forecast shows 1-3” for Pagosa, up to 4” above 8,000ft in the Pagosa area, and 8-12” for our mountains. Note the Sangre De Cristos, La Veta Pass, and the I-25 corridor are expected to get decent snow. Keep an eye on COTrip for travel conditions.
The “official” NWS snow forecast shows 1-3” for Pagosa, up to 4” above 8,000ft in the Pagosa area, and 8-12” for our mountains.
Note the Sangre De Cristos, La Veta Pass, and the I-25 corridor are expected to get decent snow. Keep an eye on COTrip for travel conditions.

The 8-14 day period… Upper level flow will remain in a La Nina-like pattern. The storm track over our region will be out of the northwest which means northern CO is favored and we get a few scraps. There are signs that the pattern could more active towards the end of this period.

This is the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.87”” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.93”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble 0.71”. In the bottom right, Canadian ensemble shows 1.16”.
This is the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.87”” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.93”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble 0.71”. In the bottom right, Canadian ensemble shows 1.16”.
Euro ensemble 15-day snow for Wolf Creek shows 11”. It looks pretty dry roughly 5-13 Dec and then might get more active.
Euro ensemble 15-day snow for Wolf Creek shows 11”.
It looks pretty dry roughly 5-13 Dec and then might get more active.

Keep an eye on Facebook for quick weather posts. The next thorough post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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