Lots of sun, warm, and mostly dry through Monday…

Camped near Cuchara. We had to leave to convince Mother Nature to bring rain to Pagosa! – Pic taken 7/23/2025

Camped near Cuchara. We had to leave to convince Mother Nature to bring rain to Pagosa! – Pic taken 7/23/2025

Friday – 25 Jul 2025 – 8:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Thursday was 81, and on Friday it was 83. The low this morning was 46. The cold spots were near 40.

The minimum relative humidity Thursday afternoon was 21% and Friday afternoon it was 13%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Thursday was 25mph and on Friday it was 23mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294 / 19404736 / 1995

Precipitation summary… There were scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Friday was dry.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Thursday morning range from zero to 0.41”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Thursday morning range from zero to 0.41”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Friday morning range from zero to 0.32”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Friday morning range from zero to 0.32”.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Friday evening – The trough over southern CA, red dashed lines, has pushed the monsoon moisture plume to our east, green line. Dry, stable flow out of the southwest will stick with us through the weekend.
Water vapor satellite Friday evening – The trough over southern CA, red dashed lines, has pushed the monsoon moisture plume to our east, green line. Dry, stable flow out of the southwest will stick with us through the weekend.

There is nothing on radar in our area Friday evening. Most of the activity is along I-25 in CO and NM.

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Mostly dry through Monday. The rest of next week will be more active.  ***

*** Rainfall across Pagosa Country has varied considerably. Fire danger remains high. New lightning fires are possible. If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Friday through next Friday… The monsoon plume is cut-off through most of Monday and will then funnel back into our area next week.

More details… Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be mostly dry and mostly stable. Monday moisture and instability will increase a bit. Tuesday through Friday, moisture and instability will both be pretty high.

And what does that mean? Dry through Sunday, a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm Monday, and then a coin toss showers and thunderstorms the rest of next week.

Temps…

Friday night lows will be near 40 to near 50.

Saturday highs will be near 80 to the high 80s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Sunday and Monday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Tuesday highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Wednesday through Friday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm. Saturday the windy spots will get gusts around 25mph.

NBM precip to next Friday evening shows 0.63” in the Pagosa area and up to 1.20” in our mountains. Precip amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to next Friday evening shows 0.63” in the Pagosa area and up to 1.20” in our mountains. Precip amounts will vary considerably.

The 8-14 day period… We’ll continue to see scattered showers and thunderstorms most afternoons. Precip amounts will vary considerably.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 9 Aug at 6am shows 1.05” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.80”. Precip amounts will vary considerably.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 9 Aug at 6am shows 1.05” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.80”. Precip amounts will vary considerably.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows “near normal” precip for us.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows “near normal” precip for us.

Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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