Lots of sun and mostly dry through next week…

Happy 4^th of July! – No fires and no fireworks please!

Friday – 4 Jul 2025 – 9:10am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Wednesday was 85, and on Thursday it was 77. The low this morning was 46. The cold spots were near 40.

The minimum relative humidity Wednesday afternoon was 11% and Thursday afternoon it was 31%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Wednesday was 20mph and on Thursday it was 28mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	93 / 1989	42	28 / 1956

Precipitation summary… A few areas got decent rain while other areas hardly got anything – pretty typical for this time of year.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reports on 3 July ranged from zero to 0.54”. The east side of the county did quite well.*

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reports on 4 July ranged from 0.01" to 0.36". The Pagosa Lakes and Chromo areas got a decent soaking. — *CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reports on 4 July ranged from 0.01″ to 0.36″. The Pagosa Lakes and Chromo areas got a decent soaking.*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Friday morning – The monsoon moisture plume was pushed to our east southwest flow. Drier, more stable air will stick with us through next week. — *Water vapor satellite Friday morning – The monsoon moisture plume was pushed to our east by southwest flow. Drier, more stable air will stick with us through next week.*

There is nothing on radar in our area Friday morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of the San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Lots of sun and mostly dry through next week. ***

*** Weak monsoon activity will start again next weekend. ***

*** FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH. ***

Friday through next Friday… Drier, more stable air will stick with us. There’s a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. Monday and Thursday are the best chance to see a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but most of the Pagosa area will stay dry.

Temps… Friday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be near 40 to near 50. For the rest of this period highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Friday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. For the rest of this period, afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

NBM precip to late next Friday evening shows none for Pagosa and up to 0.10” in our mountains. A mountain shower could move over a lucky neighborhood and drop a few raindrops, but I think most of us will stay dry.

The 8-14 day period… Weak monsoon activity will start back up, so we’ll see isolated showers and thunderstorms most afternoons. I don’t see any big soakings on the horizon.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 18 Jul at 6pm shows 0.25” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.79”. Both of these amounts are sad for this time of year. Come on monsoon!

*The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows “near normal” precip for us. Though we’ll weak monsoon activity will start next weekend, I still expect below average precip for this period.*

The next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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