An American White Pelican on a lake near Creede – pic taken 5/26/2025
Thursday – 29 May 2025 – 7:20pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Tuesday was 70, and on Wednesday it was 73. The low this morning was 39 and the cold spots were in the low 30s.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Tuesday was 25mph and on Wednesday it was 22mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 72 | 88 / 1910 | 32 | 17 / 1916 |
Precipitation summary… A few scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms have hit parts of the county the last 2 days. Most folks reported zero or a trace of rain, but folks along the northern part of the county got enough to make a few brief puddles.
Forecast discussion…
A cut-off low will wobble around the Baja Peninsula into Sunday and then move our way on Monday. Tropical Storm Alvin will move north and weaken. Some of Alvin’s moisture will get wrapped into the cut-off low and move into our area.
Forecast highlights…
*** Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. ***
*** Moisture from Alvin will give us a decent soaking on Monday. ***
*** Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms again Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. ***
Friday through Sunday… Semi-moist and unstable air will stick with us leading to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will vary between zero and 0.10”.
Temps… Friday and Saturday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s. Lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Sunday highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s. The warm spots will flirt with 90. Lows will be in the high 30s to mid-40s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be 15-20mph, but stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday night and Monday… A cut-off low off the Baja coast will tap a bit of moisture from “Alvin”, the first Pacific tropical storm of the season, and push that moisture into the Four Corners area.
Precipitable water, the amount of potential moisture available for precip, could rise to 250% of average for this time of year. This is impressive and indicative of subtropical moisture from Alvin.
Timing… Showers will gradually increase early Monday morning. The best chance for good soaking rain is late Monday morning to late Monday afternoon. Monday evening through Monday night showers will become more hit and miss.
I expect most of the county to get 0.30” to 0.60” of rain.
For folks curious about snow levels, they’ll start around 14,000ft Sunday night and drop to around 12,500ft by Monday evening.
Temps… Monday will be cooler with highs near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the high 30s to mid-40s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be near 20mph, but stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday… Moisture and instability will linger causing scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday will be the most active and then there will be a little less activity each day.
Temps… Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the low to high 30s. Thursday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph, but stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
The 8-14 day period… More typical for this time of year, fairly stable and dry southwest flow will set up. There’s a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but most of us will stay dry.
Unless there’s a big change to my forecast, the next post will be on Saturday.
– Shawn
