Potential for snow on Christmas Day…

A pink sky over Pagosa Peak this evening – pic taken 12/18/2024

Wednesday – 18 Dec 2024 – 7:45pm

The past…

There has been no data from Stevens Field since 11:19am on 9 December.

This morning the cold spots dipped into the mid-single digits.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
39	65 / 1906	4	-26 / 1908

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 48 hours.

Forecast discussion…

*Satellite Wednesday evening – The ridge, jagged blue line, is keeping the jet stream and low-pressure systems to our north.*

There is nothing on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** Dry with above average temps through 24 Dec. ***

*** Potential for some snow on Christmas Day ***

Wednesday night through Tuesday… Ridging will hold through Sunday and give us lots of sun with occasional patches of high clouds.

Monday a weak trough will skirt through northern Colorado and bring us more clouds and maybe a snowflake or two over our mountains.

Tuesday a transient ridge will give us mostly sunny skies during the day and then increasing clouds through the evening when the ridge moves to our east.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 10mph.

Temps… Wednesday night lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Thursday through Tuesday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Christmas Day… Santa will bring us a low-pressure system and some snow.

Timing…The first few scattered snowshowers will start over the mountains early Christmas morning and over the valley after sunrise. The best chance for snow is late morning to around sunset. Scattered snowshowers will taper off over the mountains by midnight.

Snow levels will be 7,000ft or lower.

Snow amounts…

Wolf Creek area: 2-4”

Pagosa area: a dusting to 1”

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.

*NBM snow to 26 Dec at 5am shows around 1” near Pagosa and 2-4” in our mountains.*

More good news… It looks like the weather pattern could stay active through the last week of the year.

This is GFS ensemble 24-hour precip to around noon on 3 Jan – It’s read left to right, and times are in zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 30 versions of the GFS forecast model. The bottom graphs those amounts. I pay most attention to the mean. It starts off dry. System 1 is the Christmas day storm. System 2 is on 27/28 Dec. System 3 is 30/31 Dec. The ? at the end of the period indicates that the pattern could stay active. None of these systems is strong but it’s a lot better than the dry period at the beginning. — This is GFS ensemble 24-hour precip to around noon on 3 Jan – It’s read left to right, and times are in zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 30 versions of the GFS forecast model. The bottom graphs those amounts. I pay most attention to the mean.

It starts off dry. System 1 is the Christmas day storm. System 2 is on 27/28 Dec. System 3 is 30/31 Dec. The ? at the end of the period indicates that the pattern could stay active. None of these systems is strong but it’s a lot better than the dry period at the beginning.

My next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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