Sunny, dry, and pleasant temps for the rest of the week…

It looks like a glorious day up at Wolf Creek! – Wolf Creek Ski Area web cam capture on 10/21/2024 at 8:45am

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Monday – 21 Oct 2024 – 9:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Sunday was 52. The low this morning was 32.

I was expecting temps 5-10 degrees lower this morning. Clouds didn’t clear out like I expected.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Sunday was 25mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
60	77 / 1940	24	-5 / 1910

Precipitation summary… Precip totals over the last 24 hours varied considerably. Wolf Creek Ski Area reported another 5” of snow for a storm total of 26”. They plan to open about 30% of their terrain tomorrow.

Storm totals are impressive. Some locations got the entire October average of 2.27” in just the last few days. Wolf Creek also got its October average of snow from this storm.

21 Oct 2024 am CoCoRaHS 24hr reports — *CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.09” to 0.71”. The rain lottery winner was Mike in the upper Mill Creek area.*

Storm totals ranged from 1.38” to 2.67”. If it was colder and this was all snow, it would be roughly 14” to 26”! — *Storm totals ranged from 1.38” to 2.67”.*
**If it was colder and this was all snow, it would be roughly 14” to 26”!**

Forecast discussion…

Satellite Monday morning – The low is spinning over eastern CO and will continue to move east. A ridge is building behind it. Upper-level flow is turning out of the northwest and pushing drier air into the region.

There is nothing significant on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

**The first big mountain snow storm of the winter was sponsored by The Springs Resort!**

*** Lots of sun and temps slightly above average most of the week. ***

*** Tracking a potential storm 29-31 October. ***

Rest of Monday through Sunday… Ridging will build back over the region. We’ll have lots of sun, dry weather, and temps will rebound back above seasonal averages.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.

Temps… Monday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Tuesday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

The 8-14 day period… Ridging will be in control and give us lots of sun, dry weather, and seasonal temps. A frontal system could move through Colorado 29-31 Oct. If the system sinks far enough south, we’ll get some precip. If it stays farther north, we’ll hardly get anything.

Euro ensemble precip to 5pm on 4 Nov on the top shows 0.89” near Pagosa. The storm track, black arrows, favors northern CO. GFS ensemble precip on the bottom shows 0.38”. It also expects a more northerly storm track.

The next forecast post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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