Tracking a potential system first part of next week…

Fall colors along Beaver Creek Road – pic taken by Arleen on 10/4/2024

Fall colors along Beaver Creek Road – pic taken by Arleen on 10/4/2024

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Saturday – 5 Oct 2024 – 3:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Thursday was 79 and on Friday it was 78. The low this morning was 39. The cold spots dipped into the high 20s this morning.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Thursday was 10mph and on Friday it was 20mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6880 / 19873013 / 1908

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite Saturday afternoon – The blocking high and ridge are keeping the American Southwest dry and warm. The storm track is well to our north.
Satellite Saturday afternoon – The blocking high and ridge are keeping the American Southwest dry and warm. The storm track is well to our north.

There is nothing on radar in our area Saturday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Cold spots will drop below freezing each night. ***

*** Lots of sun, dry, and above average temps for the next 5-7 days. ***

*** A low-pressure system could move through the region the first part of next week. ***

Rest of Saturday through Friday… A blocking high pressure across the southwest US will give us lots of sun and temps 5-10 degrees above average.

Wednesday is the exception as a weak tough will try to move through. We’ll see few more clouds and a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Saturday through Monday highs will be in the mid-70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Tuesday through Friday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

WPC precip through Wednesday evening shows a few raindrops over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops.
WPC precip through Wednesday evening shows a few raindrops over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops.

The 8-14 day period… The blocking high will weaken and allow the storm track to move a little farther south. A weak low-pressure system could move through region the first part of next week. The forecast models are all over the place with timing and precip, so my forecast confidence is low at this point.  Right now, the storm doesn’t look too impressive.

Euro ensemble precip to 20 Oct at 6am on the left expects 0.57” and GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 0.44”. Most of this precip is expected 12-15 Oct but the forecast models are inconsistent with timing and precip amounts so I don’t trust them.
Euro ensemble precip to 20 Oct at 6am on the left expects 0.57” and GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 0.44”. Most of this precip is expected 12-15 Oct but the forecast models are inconsistent with timing and precip amounts so I don’t trust them.

The next forecast post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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