Time to do our Rain Dances & Wash our Cars to keep Alberto headed our way! Microsoft generated AI image. Click on title of post to see image.
Wednesday – 19 June 2024 – 5:00pm
Pagosa Springs has been waiting for you Alberto!
The deep tropical moisture that is the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto, will advect into our area with rain beginning late today and lasting till early Saturday morning. So, begins Monsoon Season ’24!
Alberto’s two day rain event of Thursday and Friday is sponsored by The Springs Resort!
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon has been 81. The low this morning was 44.
The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon has been 30mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 80 | 93/1954 | 37 | 22 / 1908 |
Precipitation summary… We have not had rain across the area for the last two days. However, that is about to change. CoCoRaHS observers time to clear the cobwebs from your rain gauges!
Forecast discussion…
Satellite
A massive area of high pressure is in place from the southern plains into the northeast. At the same time an upper level disturbance or trough is moving southeast from the northwest. That is making a squeeze play on us and accounts for some of your winds. The warm and dry conditions in the afternoon just exasperates the winds.
Finally, Tropical Storm Alberto is in the southern Gulf of Mexico and his moisture is moving clockwise around the huge area of high pressure and moving to the northwest and towards southwest Colorado. It is a long ways to go. But we can already see evidence of moist air advection on satellite and on radar. See the storms firing up in northern Mexico and New Mexico.
Radar:
This is the big picture showing moist air moving in all the way from the southern Gulf of Mexico. You can see storms firing up in the warm dry atmosphere as the moist air moves in from the low levels and the cooler air moves in the upper levels destabilizing the atmosphere. This is what we refer to as the ducks are all in a line for a good storm system!
Forecast highlights…
*** Good soaking Late Wednesday till early Saturday. ***
*** Chance of localized flooding in low lying areas or areas prone to flooding Thursday & Friday***
*** Dryer Saturday through Monday with Afternoon Thunderstorms.
Wednesday Evening… Will be Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy. Rainshowers will move in the early evening with the first nocturnal thunder sounding around midnight.
Winds… Afternoons gusts will be around 25 to 30mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the high 70s.
Thursday through Saturday… Things are lining up for a decent rain storm! This is a lot of moisture for this time of year and is a system more like what we could expect at the end of July!
Tropical Storm Alberto is in the southern Gulf of Mexico and his moisture is moving clockwise around the huge area of high pressure and moving to the northwest and towards southwest Colorado.
Thursday will be Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy. Moisture will continue to pack in and Friday will be Cloudy with lower clouds. We can expect isolated nocturnal thunderstorms Wednesday night to Thursday morning. Expect numerous thunderstorms throughout the day on Thursday. We’ll see just isolated thunderstorms on Friday but also steady rain most of the day. With the thunderstorms over the two day period expect heavy rain at times, small hail, and very gusty winds associated with outflow from the storms.
NBM: 1.62 Euro: 4.29” (wow!) GFS: 2.02” Canadian: 2.56”
With this much expected rain, chance of localized flooding in low lying areas or areas prone to flooding is a real concern. WPC has highlighted areas of possible flooding in our area for Thursday and Friday.
Cooler air associated with an upper level trough is moving in from the northwest. This is helping to destabilize the atmosphere. Cape, a measure of instability, will be well above what we need for showers and thunderstorms. The Cape values for thunderstorms are the highest around noon on Thursday.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be 15-20mph. Isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Temps… Highs will be in the lo-70s to mid-70s on Thursday and only upper 60s to low-70s on Friday and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.
Saturday through Monday
The upper level trough will move through our area late Friday night and very early Saturday morning. High pressure and drier air will move in. Skies will be Partly Cloudy. However, there will still be enough residual moisture left to kick off isolated thunderstorms each afternoon. Expect Mostly Cloudy skies in the afternoon with those thunderstorms.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be 15-20mph. Isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Temps… Will increase each day. Saturday will in the upper 70s to lo 80s. By Monday it will be in the lo 80s to upper 80s. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lo 50s.
Huge thanks, again, to The Springs Resort for sponsoring our two day storm!
If we see something significant, we’ll make a quick post. Otherwise, we’ll have a post out mid morning tomorrow.
– Arleen
2 Responses
I love your forecast, graphics, and articulation! The forecasts too…
I’ve lived in Durango 15 years now, and thought “monsoon” met low pressure from Baja and high-pressure from Texas meeting in Durango, yet this weather coming seems to be just remnants of Alberto. Can you comment?
Hi JD, often the monsoon pattern appears to be as you described. Monsoon means a reversal in seasonal wind pattern. So rather than coming from the northwest, our weather comes from the southeast. We need hot temps & big high pressure over southern plains though it will sometimes shift west. Then we need low level moisture sneaking around the ridge. For the most part it is just moist air that we find by monitoring dew points. In this case it’s BIG moisture. In September we’ll get tropical moisture sneaking in from Baja. For more info read my seasonal outlook for the monsoon this year: https://pagosaweather.org/2024/05/23/the-24-monsoon-forecast-for-pagosa-please-be-better-then-last-year/
Thanks for following us!
– Arleen