Finally a little bit of rain!…

It’s an angry sky this evening – pic taken 6/10/2024 at 7:05pm

It’s an angry sky this evening – pic taken 6/10/2024 at 7:05pm

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Monday – 10 June 2024 – 7:40pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Sunday afternoon was 84. The high on Monday was 70. The low this morning was 56. The cold spots were in the high 40s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 22mph and so far today the wind has peaked at 17mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7695/ 19483522 / 1950

Precipitation summary… Scattered showers moved through much of the county Monday afternoon and another round is trying to set up Monday evening a I type. So far precip amounts are light but hopefully another round of showers will move through this evening.

Forecast discussion…

Infrared satellite this evening – An impressive band of showers and thunderstorms are over much of the San Luis Valley. Alamosa got hit pretty good around 6pm with heavy rain. The two cells just west of the main band are over the Williams Lake area at 7:05pm.
Infrared satellite this evening – An impressive band of showers and thunderstorms are over much of the San Luis Valley. Alamosa got hit pretty good around 6pm with heavy rain. The two cells just west of the main band are over the Williams Lake area at 7:05pm.
Radar this evening at 7:04pm – A band of fairly heavy showers and thunderstorms is moving into the northern part of Archuleta County as I type.  Storms are moving towards the south-southeast. There is quite a bit of lightning with these storms.
Radar this evening at 7:04pm – A band of fairly heavy showers and thunderstorms is moving into the northern part of Archuleta County as I type.  Storms are moving towards the south-southeast. There is quite a bit of lightning with these storms.

Forecast highlights…

*** Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms Monday evening, Tuesday afternoon, and again Friday. ***

*** Sunny and warm Wednesday and Thursday. ***

Rest of Monday through Tuesday… The low is over eastern NM and pushing considerable moisture into the area from the south and southeast. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Monday evening, especially across the northern part of the county.

Moisture will be dwindling Tuesday afternoon, but there will be enough for another round of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be near 15mph. Isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Monday lows will be in the low to high 40s. Highs Tuesday will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

NBM precip to 6pm on 11 June shows 0.12” near Pagosa and a 0.50” bullseye near Cumbres Pass. It’s all from spotty afternoon showers so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to 6pm on 11 June shows 0.12” near Pagosa and a 0.50” bullseye near Cumbres Pass. It’s all from spotty afternoon showers so amounts will vary considerably.

Wednesday and Thursday… Drier air will move in as the ridge builds again over the region. We’ll have lots of sun and temps will be warmer.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Afternoon highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Friday and Saturday… Another weak low will move through the Four Corners region. Moisture and instability will increase leading to spotty afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two. The best chance for precip is Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Temps will be closer to average.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Euro forecast model 48-hour precip for Friday and Saturday shows 0.16” near Pagosa. It’s all convective showers so amounts will vary.
Euro forecast model 48-hour precip for Friday and Saturday shows 0.16” near Pagosa. It’s all convective showers so amounts will vary.

My next forecast post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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