A raindrop or two possible through Saturday…

Love it when our day ends like this! – Pic taken 5/29/2024

Love it when our day ends like this! – Pic taken 5/29/2024

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Thursday – 30 May 2024 – 3:50pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 75 and so far the high today is 75. The low this morning was 37. The cold spots were near 30.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Wednesday afternoon was 30mph and so far today it has been 22mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7289/ 19103212 / 1916

Precipitation summary… A couple of weak showers dropped a few raindrops over parts of the county yesterday, but there was no measurable precip reported.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop around 3pm this afternoon – Scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms have developed over the San Juan Mountains this afternoon.  They are moving towards the southeast. Check out those monster thunderstorms to the east!
Water vapor satellite loop around 3pm this afternoon – Scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms have developed over the San Juan Mountains this afternoon.  They are moving towards the southeast.
Check out those monster thunderstorms to the east!
Radar at 3:26pm Thursday afternoon – Scattered light showers are moving towards the southeast. Most of these will only travel 10-15 miles before they fall apart.
Radar at 3:26pm Thursday afternoon – Scattered light showers are moving towards the southeast. Most of these will only travel 10-15 miles before they fall apart.

Forecast highlights…

*** Beautiful weather for a while. ***

*** Fire danger will gradually increase. ***

Rest of Thursday through Wednesday… Upper-level flow will fluctuate between west to east and southwest to northeast in our area.

Thursday through Saturday there is just enough moisture and instability to kick up a spotty shower or two each afternoon, mostly over the mountains.  I don’t expect any significant precip.

Sunday through Wednesday will be dry with temps 5-10 degrees above average.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers.

Temps… Highs Thursday through Sunday will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Monday through Wednesday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Two-week outlook… Climatologically the second half of May through June is our driest time of year.

Typical of this time of year, I see no organized storms for us over the next two weeks. Towards the end of the first week of June the subtropical ridge will begin to setup over the region. If it sets up to our east, we could see more active weather. If it sets up to our west, we’ll stay mostly dry and warm.

NBM precip to 6pm on 10 June shows less than 0.13” near Pagosa and up to 0.40” in our mountains. Most of this precip falls after 7 June.  It’s all from spotty afternoon showers so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to 6pm on 10 June shows 0.13” near Pagosa and up to 0.40” in our mountains. Most of this precip falls after 7 June.  It’s all from spotty afternoon showers so amounts will vary considerably.
Euro ensemble 24-hour precip to 6am on 14 June.  This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and the mean of those 50 versions.  This starts out indicating that a few raindrops are possible through Saturday.  Then it’s dry Monday through next Thursday. Finally things look more active 8-14 June.
Euro ensemble 24-hour precip to 6am on 14 June.  This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and the mean of those 50 versions. 
This starts out indicating that a few raindrops are possible through Saturday.  Then it’s dry Monday through next Thursday. Finally things look more active 8-14 June.

My next forecast post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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