Enjoy the great weather!…

My nephew relaxing on a bridge over a small mountain stream – Pic taken 5/25/2024

My nephew relaxing on a bridge over a small mountain stream – Pic taken 5/25/2024

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Tuesday – 28 May 2024 – Noon

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 72. The low this morning was 40.

*** The temperature at the airfield was already 73 at 11:35am today.  I’m confident that we’ll have a 75 degree contest winner today! ***

The peak wind at Stevens Field Saturday afternoon was 22mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7185/ 19103217 / 1916

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Flow is mostly west to east across the region.  There’s a little moisture and it’s a little unstable. The subtropical high is well to our south over Mexico.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Flow is mostly west to east across the region.  There’s a little moisture and it’s a little unstable. The subtropical high is well to our south over Mexico.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Beautiful weather for a while. ***

*** Fire danger will gradually increase. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Monday… Upper-level flow will fluctuate between west to east and southwest to northeast in our area. There is just enough moisture and instability to kick up a spotty shower or two over the mountains each afternoon.  I don’t expect any significant precip.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

Two-week outlook… Climatologically the second half of May through June is our driest time of year.

Typical of this time of year, I see no organized storms for us over the next two weeks. The first week of June the subtropical ridge will begin to setup over the region. If it sets up to our east, we could see more active weather. If it sets up to our west, we’ll stay mostly dry and warm.  Right now, I think the ridge will stay to our west – boooo hissss.

NBM precip to 6am on 8 June shows less than 0.10” along our mountains. A few spotty raindrops are possible, but I don’t expect any significant precip.
NBM precip to 6am on 8 June shows less than 0.10” along our mountains. A few spotty raindrops are possible, but I don’t expect any significant precip.
The top map is Euro ensemble precip and the bottom map is GFS ensemble precip.  Both go out to 6pm on 11 June. For the Pagosa area, the Euro expects 0.27” and the GFS expects 0.60”. At this point, I agree with the Euro.
The top map is Euro ensemble precip and the bottom map is GFS ensemble precip.  Both go out to 6pm on 11 June. For the Pagosa area, the Euro expects 0.27” and the GFS expects 0.60”. At this point, I agree with the Euro.

My next forecast post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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