Yesterday was “fun” – spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Thursday …

Lots of pea-size hail fell yesterday. A few folks reported marble-size hail. – Pic taken 5/11/2024 in the City Market parking lot

Lots of pea-size hail fell yesterday. A few folks reported marble-size hail. – Pic taken 5/11/2024 in the City Market parking lot

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Sunday – 12 May 2024 – 8:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 54. The low this morning was 31. The cold spots dipped into the mid-20s.

The peak wind in the last 24 hours at Stevens Field was 25mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6782/ 19962920 / 1948

Precipitation summary… There were multiple rounds of showers, thunderstorms, and hail yesterday.  Most of the county got decent rain.

Thanks a bunch for your reports, pictures, and videos yesterday!  We forwarded a few reports and pictures to the Grand Junction NWS.  They appreciated it too!

Weather Underground radar on Saturday, 11 May, at 10:37am was already quite active. Each one of those cells had heavy rain and small hail.
Weather Underground radar on Saturday, 11 May, at 10:37am was already quite active. Each one of those cells had heavy rain and small hail.
CoCoRaHS 2-day precip reports in Archuleta County range from 0.12” to 0.70”. A couple of weather sensors in our area had over 0.80” yesterday.
CoCoRaHS 2-day precip reports in Archuleta County range from 0.12” to 0.70”.
A couple of weather sensors in our area had over 0.80” yesterday.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The low has moved to our east, but the trough was over our heads this morning. Upper-level flow, green arrows, is currently out of the northeast, but will gradually turn more northerly through the day.  There’s enough moisture and instability to kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The low has moved to our east, but the trough was over our heads this morning. Upper-level flow, green arrows, is currently out of the northeast, but will gradually turn more northerly through the day.  There’s enough moisture and instability to kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Radar this morning – Radar isn’t showing anything in our area. There are few light showers to our south. Precip along the Front Range is terrain induced, and won’t impact us.
Radar this morning – Radar isn’t showing anything in our area. There are few light showers to our south. Precip along the Front Range is terrain induced, and won’t impact us.

Forecast highlights…

*** Warmer with pleasant temps. ***

*** Spotty afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms through Thursday. ***

Sunday through Thursday… Residual moisture and instability will lead to spotty afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two.  It’s not a monsoon pattern, but it will act a little like it. Precip amounts each day will be low and spotty.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph each day.  Isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Sunday highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. The rest of the period highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

NBM precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.40” near Pagosa, 0.51” for Chama, 0.22” for Bayfield, and up to 1” in our mountains. This all spotty convective afternoon precip so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.40” near Pagosa, 0.51” for Chama, 0.22” for Bayfield, and up to 1” in our mountains.
This all spotty convective afternoon precip so amounts will vary considerably.

Friday through Sunday… Ridging will be in control.  We’ll see scattered clouds each afternoon, but I expect us to stay dry.  Temps will be at and slightly above average – it will be really nice!

Winds… Afternoon gusts Friday and Saturday will be around 20mph.  Gusts Sunday afternoon will be around 25mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to high 70s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.

My next forecast post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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