Light winds for a while and some precip! …

Wolf Creek basking in a warm sunrise glow – Web cam capture 5/8/2024

Wolf Creek basking in a warm sunrise glow – Web cam capture 5/8/2024

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Wednesday – 8 May 2024 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 61. The low this morning was 31. The cold spots dipped into the high teens the last two mornings.

The peak wind at the airfield was 46mph at 3:15pm Tuesday.

The peak wind for Lobo Overlook/Wolf Creek Pass was 66mph at 12:15pm.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6680/ 19892813 / 1981

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The main low is still spinning over the northern plains and is slowly weakening.  Upper-level flow around the low, yellow arrows is also weakening. Moisture is also decreasing in our area.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The main low is still spinning over the northern plains and is slowly weakening.  Upper-level flow around the low, yellow arrows, is also weakening. Moisture is also decreasing in our area.

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Scattered afternoon showers, isolated thunderstorms, and LIGHTER WINDS Thursday through Sunday. ***

*** Wolf Creek Pass will have periods of winter driving conditions Thursday evening into Sunday. ***

Wednesday… Drier air will move in from the northwest.  We’ll have partly cloudy skies and a breezy afternoon.

Winds… Wednesday afternoon winds will gust 20-25mph.

Temps… Highs Wednesday will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Thursday through Sunday… Finally, a system will favor southern Colorado! A cut-off low is expected to spin over UT Thursday into Saturday night. Over the last 2 days, the forecast models have pushed the low more into our sweet spot over southern UT. The result is better storm energy and moisture for us.

Timing… Clouds will increase Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon, especially over the mountains. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will ramp up Thursday night into Saturday evening with the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. By Sunday afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be more spotty.

Snow levels… The source region for this system is the desert southwest so snow levels will be high.  They’ll bounce around between 9,000ft and 10,500ft during the period.

Precip amounts for the entire period…

Valley: 0.40” to 0.60” – most of it will fall Friday

Mountains above 9,000ft: 6-12” – most of it will fall on Friday

More good news – The winds will be considerably weaker!

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Thursday and Friday highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.  Saturday and Sunday highs will be in the high 50s to high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

NBM precip to Sunday evening shows 0.71” for Pagosa, 0.70” for Chama, 0.34” for Bayfield, and up to 1.50” for our mountains. The trend for the forecast models has been for higher precip amounts – yay! Some models expect more than 1” of precip, but for now I’m keeping my expectations lower.
NBM precip to Sunday evening shows 0.71” for Pagosa, 0.70” for Chama, 0.34” for Bayfield, and up to 1.50” for our mountains.
The trend for the forecast models has been for higher precip amounts – yay! Some models expect more than 1” of precip, but for now I’m keeping my expectations lower.

The NWS forecast model for snow zoomed into our area valid into Saturday morning (doesn’t capture the whole event) shows snow above 9,000ft. Near Wolf Creek Pass 7” is possible, and 12-15” is possible along the higher ridges. We’re dealing with a difficult-to-forecast cut-off low so I’m still leery of these amounts.
The NWS forecast model for snow zoomed into our area valid into Saturday morning (doesn’t capture the whole event) shows snow above 9,000ft. Near Wolf Creek Pass 7” is possible, and 12-15” is possible along the higher ridges.
We’re dealing with a difficult-to-forecast cut-off low so I’m still leery of these amounts.

Monday and Tuesday… Residual moisture and instability will lead to spotty afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two.  It’s not a monsoon pattern, but it will act a little like it. Precip amounts will be low and spotty.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.  Isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

My next forecast post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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