Wolf Creek basking in a warm sunrise glow – Web cam capture 5/8/2024
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Wednesday – 8 May 2024 – 10:30am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 61. The low this morning was 31. The cold spots dipped into the high teens the last two mornings.
The peak wind at the airfield was 46mph at 3:15pm Tuesday.
The peak wind for Lobo Overlook/Wolf Creek Pass was 66mph at 12:15pm.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 66 | 80/ 1989 | 28 | 13 / 1981 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.
Forecast highlights…
*** Scattered afternoon showers, isolated thunderstorms, and LIGHTER WINDS Thursday through Sunday. ***
*** Wolf Creek Pass will have periods of winter driving conditions Thursday evening into Sunday. ***
Wednesday… Drier air will move in from the northwest. We’ll have partly cloudy skies and a breezy afternoon.
Winds… Wednesday afternoon winds will gust 20-25mph.
Temps… Highs Wednesday will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.
Thursday through Sunday… Finally, a system will favor southern Colorado! A cut-off low is expected to spin over UT Thursday into Saturday night. Over the last 2 days, the forecast models have pushed the low more into our sweet spot over southern UT. The result is better storm energy and moisture for us.
Timing… Clouds will increase Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon, especially over the mountains. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will ramp up Thursday night into Saturday evening with the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. By Sunday afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be more spotty.
Snow levels… The source region for this system is the desert southwest so snow levels will be high. They’ll bounce around between 9,000ft and 10,500ft during the period.
Precip amounts for the entire period…
Valley: 0.40” to 0.60” – most of it will fall Friday
Mountains above 9,000ft: 6-12” – most of it will fall on Friday
More good news – The winds will be considerably weaker!
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Temps… Thursday and Friday highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. Saturday and Sunday highs will be in the high 50s to high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.
The trend for the forecast models has been for higher precip amounts – yay! Some models expect more than 1” of precip, but for now I’m keeping my expectations lower.
We’re dealing with a difficult-to-forecast cut-off low so I’m still leery of these amounts.
Monday and Tuesday… Residual moisture and instability will lead to spotty afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two. It’s not a monsoon pattern, but it will act a little like it. Precip amounts will be low and spotty.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.
My next forecast post will be on Friday.
– Shawn
