Lots of snow for the Colorado Rockies …

Tommy enjoyed a great a view of Wolf Creek! – Pic taken 3/12/2024

Tommy enjoyed a great view of Wolf Creek! – Pic taken 3/12/2024

 If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Tuesday – 12 Mar 2024 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 52 and the low this morning was 27.

The peak wind at the airfield was 23mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4768 / 198914-13 / 1962

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Clouds are increasing from the west ahead of a trough. The trough will move through our area Wednesday morning.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Clouds are increasing from the west ahead of a trough. The trough will move through our area Wednesday morning.
Radar this afternoon – Light scattered showers are moving into western Colorado.  The main batch of showers is over southwest UT and will move our way tonight.
Radar this afternoon – Light scattered showers are moving into western Colorado.  The main batch of showers is over southwest UT and will move our way tonight.

Forecast highlights…

*** A slow-moving cut-off low will keep things unsettled Tuesday night into Saturday. ***

*** Travel into the mountains or to the Front Range will be treacherous Wednesday night through Friday. ***

*** WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is out for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft for up to 10” of snow 6pm Tuesday to 6am Thursday. ***

*** WINTER STORM WARNING is out for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft for up to 20” of snow 6am Thursday to 6pm Friday. ***

Tuesday night into Saturday… The next system will move through. It will come in waves with the first trough moving through Wednesday morning and then a cut-off low spinning over AZ Thursday into Saturday.

Forecast concerns… 1. Transition season (spring) is beginning.  Forecast models struggle with transition seasons.  2. Forecast models also struggle with cut-off lows. They are cut-off from upper-level steering flow and wobble around, similar to hurricanes. A hundred-mile “wobble” in any direction significantly impacts the forecast. 3. Daytime temps will be in the high 30s to mid-40s so snow will be slow to accumulate.

Snow amounts…

Valley below 7,500ft: 2-4”

Valley above 7,500ft: 4-8”

Mountains: 18-24”

Most of this snow will fall Thursday night and Friday. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

*** There is still uncertainty with this system. I will adjust timing & snow amounts as the data gets better. ***

Winds… Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, Thursday night, and Friday afternoon: 15-20mph. Saturday afternoon: 10-15mph.

Temps… Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.  Highs will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.

NWS snow forecast 6pm Tuesday to 6pm Friday shows 3-4” near Pagosa Springs and 18-24” near Wolf Creek.
NWS snow forecast 6pm Tuesday to 6pm Friday shows 3-4” near Pagosa Springs and 18-24” near Wolf Creek. All mountains should get quite a bit of snow!
NBM snow to 6pm Saturday shows 4.4” near Pagosa Springs, 5.3” near Chama, 2.3” near Bayfield, and up to 2ft in our mountains.
NBM snow to 6pm Saturday shows 4.4” near Pagosa Springs, 5.3” near Chama, 2.3” near Bayfield, and up to 2ft in our mountains.
Forecast snow levels through the weekend – The snow level will be around 7,000ft tonight to around sunset Wednesday. It drops below 6,500ft Wednesday evening through Friday morning. Then the snow level pops up to 7,500ft Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Temps will be above freezing each afternoon making it difficult for snow to accumulate.
Forecast snow levels through the weekend – The snow level will be around 7,000ft tonight to around sunset Wednesday. It drops below 6,500ft Wednesday evening through Friday morning. Then the snow level pops up to 7,500ft Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
Temps will be above freezing each afternoon making it difficult for snow to accumulate.

My next forecast will be Wednesday morning.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

One Response

  1. Shawn, I like your Forecast Snow Levels Elevation chart at the end of the article. This is very useful !

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon