Lots of sun and dry through Tuesday afternoon…

It looked beautiful up at Wolf Creek this morning – Web cam capture 3/9/2024 at 6:30am

It looked beautiful up at Wolf Creek this morning – Web cam capture 3/9/2024 at 6:30am

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Saturday – 9 Mar 2024 – 9:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 42 and the low this morning was 23.

The peak wind at the airfield was 18mph. The peak gust at Lobo Overlook yesterday was 21mph. Conditions at Lobo Overlook at 8:35am Saturday:  Temp is 14 and winds are out of the southwest at 6mph resulting in a wind chill of 5.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4867 / 196213-10 / 1964

Precipitation summary… Showers and a few thunderstorms developed yesterday afternoon.  Some spots had a brief period of heavy snow while others got hardly anything. Wolf Creek reported another 4” of snow this morning for a storm total of 6”.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from a trace to 2.3”. Leo near Catchpole is the big snow winner with a 2-day snow total of 3.3”!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from a trace to 2.3”. Leo near Catchpole is the big snow winner with a 2-day snow total of 3.3”!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – There is some residual moisture left in our area behind yesterday’s trough. Drier air will start moving in from the west.  The ridge, jagged blue line, will move through late Sunday and then we’ll see a few more clouds Monday and Tuesday.
Water vapor satellite this morning – There is some residual moisture left in our area behind yesterday’s trough. Drier air will start moving in from the west.  The ridge, jagged blue line, will move through late Sunday and then we’ll see a few more clouds Monday and Tuesday.

There is nothing on radar in our region this morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Daylight savings time starts Saturday night. Remember to “spring forward” one hour. ***

*** Next system Tuesday night into Friday. ***

Rest of Saturday through Tuesday afternoon… Saturday and Sunday a transitory ridge will dry us out and give us lots of sun.

Monday and Tuesday the ridge will shift to our east and upper-level flow will be west to east. A weak trough could kick up a few scattered showers over the mountains Monday afternoon.

Clouds will increase Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next system. A shower or two could pop up over the mountains.

The lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch of snow.

Winds… Saturday and Sunday afternoons: 10mph. Monday afternoon: 15-20mph – the windy spots could hit 25mph.  Tuesday afternoon: 10-20mph.

Temps… Highs Saturday will be in the low to high 40s and lows Saturday night will be in the low teens to low 20s. Highs the rest of the period will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Tuesday night into Friday… The next system will move through. It will come in waves with the first trough moving through on Wednesday and then a cut-off low spinning over AZ on Thursday.

A couple of forecast concerns… 1. We are starting transition season (spring).  Forecast models struggle with transition seasons.  2. We are dealing with a cut-off low.  Forecast models struggle with cut-off lows. They are cut-off from upper-level steering flow and wobble around like hurricanes. A hundred-mile “wobble” in any direction significantly impacts the forecast.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 1-4”

Mountains: 10-20”

*** There is still a lot of uncertainty with this system. I will adjust timing and snow amounts as the data gets better. ***

Winds… Wednesday afternoon: 15-20mph – the windy spots could hit 25mph. Thursday afternoon: 10-15mph. Friday afternoon: 10-15mph.

Temps… Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.  Highs the rest of the period will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.

NBM snow to 6pm Friday shows 2.1” near Pagosa, 2.9” near Chama, 1” near Bayfield, and 10-20” in our mountains. Right now I agree with this but this model and the other forecast models will fluctuate quite a bit with this system.
NBM snow to 6pm Friday shows 2.1” near Pagosa, 2.9” near Chama, 1” near Bayfield, and 10-20” in our mountains.

Right now I agree with this but this model and the other forecast models will fluctuate quite a bit with this system.

My next post will be Monday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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