It’s coming…

Grand Junction NWS travel snow forecast

Grand Junction NWS travel snow forecast

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Tuesday – 6 Feb 2024 – 8:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 45 and the low this morning was 29.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 3mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4161 / 19634-31 / 1982

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – Lots of moisture is steaming into the region from the southwest. Storm energy moves into our area tonight and tomorrow and will give us a good round of snow.
Water vapor satellite this morning – Lots of moisture is streaming into the region from the southwest. Storm energy moves into our area tonight and tomorrow and will give us a good round of snow.
Radar at 7am this morning – Radar is backwards for us this morning.  Though radar indicates light precip in our area, there is none.  The radar is picking up thick moisture at 20,000-30,000ft.  The leading edge of the real precip in moving into the southern half of AZ.
Radar at 7am this morning – Radar is backwards for us this morning.  Though radar indicates light precip in our area, there is none.  The radar is picking up thick moisture/ice crystals at 20,000-30,000ft.  The leading edge of the real precip in moving into the southern half of AZ.

*** Occasional moderate to heavy snow, gusty winds, blowing snow, and poor visibility is likely late Tuesday night to Wednesday afternoon. ***

*** Heavy wet snow and gusty winds could lead to spotty power outages. ***

*** A WINTER STROM WARNING has been issued by the Pueblo NWS for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft for up to 2-3ft of snow and 55mph winds from noon Tuesday to 5pm Thursday. *** This does not include the Pagosa Springs area.

*** An AVALANCHE WATCH has been issued for our mountains from late Tuesday night through Thursday. ***

*** As of 8am Tuesday morning, there are no advisories or warnings out for the San Juan River Basin/Pagosa Springs area. ***

*** The third, and possible final, storm is Friday and Saturday. ***

This winter storm is sponsored by The Springs Resort!

Tuesday afternoon into Thursday morning – Everything is lining up for a good storm – jetstream support, storm energy, moisture, precipitable water, and fetch. With a long southerly fetch, it will start off a little warm like the previous system but will cool more quickly and give us a longer period for snow to accumulate.

Timing… The first scattered showers will start over the mountains later this morning and over the valley this afternoon. The heaviest precip will fall Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon. Precip will become more showery Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

Snow levels…  Will start around 8,000ft Tuesday afternoon, drop to 7,000ft by sunrise Wednesday, bounce around 6,500ft until sunset Wednesday, and then stay below 6,500ft the rest of the period.

Snow amounts by 8am Wednesday…

Valley below 7,400ft: 1-4” – heavy wet snow that won’t accumulate efficiently

Valley above 7,400ft: 4-7”

Mountains: 10-16”

Snow amounts 8am to 8pm Wednesday…

Valley below 7,400ft: 2-4” – heavy wet snow that won’t accumulate efficiently

Valley above 7,400ft: 4-7”

Mountains: 10-16”

Snow amounts 8pm Wednesday to 5pm Thursday…

Valley: 1-3” – this will be more spotty

Mountains: 6-10”

Winds… *** Gusts will be around 25mph Tuesday night to Wednesday evening. ***

Temps. Highs Tuesday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and low Tuesday night will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. Highs Wednesday will be in the mid-30s and lows will be in the low to high 20s. Highs Thursday will be near 30 to the mid-30s.

Grand Junction NWS snow forecast to Thursday at 5pm shows 8-12” near Pagosa, 12-18” for the higher parts of the valley, and 30+ inches for our mountains
Grand Junction NWS snow forecast to Thursday at 5pm shows 8-12” near Pagosa, 12-18” for the higher parts of the valley, and 30+ inches for our mountains

Albuquerque NWS snow forecast to Thursday at 5am shows 8-12” for Chama.
Albuquerque NWS snow forecast to Thursday at 5am shows 8-12” for Chama.

Thursday afternoon through Friday morning… There will be a brief lull, but we’ll stay mostly cloudy with scattered snowshowers.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 1-3” but it will be spotty

Mountains: 3-6”

Winds… Gusts Thursday afternoon will be around 20mph.

Temps… Highs Thursday afternoon will be in the high 20s to mid-30s and lows Thursday night will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Friday afternoon through Saturday… The next trough will move through from the northwest which isn’t favorable for us. Additionally, storm energy and moisture are weak, so my expectations are low. I’m concerned that this one will go poof.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 1-4”

Mountains: 4-8”

I’ll do a quick post first thing tomorrow morning and then a more thorough post later in the morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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7 Responses

  1. Fantastic first image at the top of this post! Makes it so quick and easy to see how much snow I can expect where I live and in the places I might visit. Thanks so much!

  2. Hey Shawn, any idea why that graphic shows Mancos getting so much snow? 19 – 26 inches? That’s more than any other area except Wolf Creek. We live in the Mancos area, not sure I feel like shoveling 2 ft. of snow. Thanks for your forecasting, it’s appreciated.

    1. Good morning Gregg! Thank you for following us from Mancos! We had wondered about the Mancos amounts as well. The point forecsat indicates 9″ for Mancos. That makes a lot more sense! I sent a quick note to National Weather Service. I’ll let you know what their answer is.

        1. Gregg; Response from National Weather Service: “Not sure where the higher numbers came from as you are correct amounts for Mancos proper is much less. We will be updating this product later today and make sure that is fixed. For now 8-12 seems more appropriate though higher points East of Mancos along 160 could do much better. ”
          That will be a lot easier to shovel!

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