A little snow Saturday night to Monday afternoon…

Pagosa Weather pup, Tommy, loves running in the snow! – pic taken 1/16/2024

Pagosa Weather pup, Tommy, loves running in the snow! – pic taken 1/16/2024

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Thursday – 18 Jan 2024 – 5:00pm

Arleen is riding with the San Juan Sled Dogs this Sunday, 21 January. There’s room for more! Sunday is “locals’ day” with 25% off for those that drive themselves to the trailhead.  Please contact them at 970-507-0316 for more information.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 35 and this afternoon it was 41. The low this morning was 21.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 6mph and today it was 7mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3753 / 19443-30 / 1980

Precipitation summary… There was a burst of snow across parts of the area yesterday between roughly 1:30 and 2:30pm. Wolf Creek reported an inch of new snow this morning.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from zero to 1.1”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from zero to 1.1”.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The ridge will move over our heads Friday night. Starting Saturday night, the weather pattern gets sloppy for us. There’s quite a bit of moisture, but there is limited storm energy to turn that moisture into precip.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The ridge will move over our heads Friday night. Starting Saturday night, the weather pattern gets sloppy for us. There’s quite a bit of moisture, but there is limited storm energy to turn that moisture into precip.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Chance for snow Saturday night to Monday afternoon. ***

Thursday evening to Saturday afternoon… An upper-level ridge will slowly move towards us and keep us dry. The ridge will move over us Friday night and then upper-level southwest flow will push more clouds into the region through Saturday.

Winds… Peaks will around 10mph each afternoon.

Temps… Lows Thursday night will be in the low teens to low 20s. Highs Friday and Saturday will range from near 40 to the mid-40s. Lows Friday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Saturday evening to Monday afternoon… The next system will move through. It will be disorganized, have limited moisture, and be a bit warmer.

Timing… The first scattered showers will start over the mountains Saturday afternoon and then over the valley Saturday night. Hit and miss snowshowers will persist into Monday afternoon.

Snow levels… Starting Saturday afternoon snow levels will be around 8,000ft, drop to 6,600ft by sunrise Sunday, rise to 7,300ft Sunday afternoon, drop to 6,000ft Sunday night, and then rise to 7,200ft Monday afternoon.

Snow amounts…

Valley below 7,400ft: 1-2”

Valley above 7,400ft: 2-3”

Mountains: 4-8”

Winds… Peaks will be around 10mph each afternoon.

Temps… Lows Saturday night will be in the low to high 20s. Highs Sunday will be in the mid-30s to around 40 and lows Sunday night will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Highs Monday will be in the mid-30s to around 40.

NBM snow to Monday at 5pm shows 2” for Pagosa, 1.2” for Chama, 1” for Bayfield, and 4-6” in our mountains. This looks reasonable to me at this time.
NBM snow to Monday at 5pm shows 2” for Pagosa, 1.2” for Chama, 1” for Bayfield, and 4-6” in our mountains. This looks reasonable to me at this time.

Monday evening to Wednesday evening… Upper-level flow will vary between southwest and northwest and continue to push moisture and clouds through the region.  Weak troughs will kick up occasional scattered snowshowers, but I don’t expect much snow to accumulate.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 0-1”

Mountains: 2-4”

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 10mph.

Temps… Lows Monday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.  Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

GFS 2-day snowfall from Monday at 11pm to Wednesday at 11pm shows 0.4” for Pagosa, 0.6” for Chama, 0.3” for Bayfield, and up to 2” in our mountains.  This looks reasonable to me at this time.
GFS 2-day snowfall from Monday at 11pm to Wednesday at 11pm shows 0.4” for Pagosa, 0.6” for Chama, 0.3” for Bayfield, and up to 2” in our mountains.  This looks reasonable to me at this time.

Arleen will do the next post tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon