One of my favorite views! – Pic taken 5/7/2023
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Monday – 8 May 2023 – 11:35am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 63 and the low this morning was 31. Here in the southern end of O’Neal Park our high yesterday afternoon was 60 and our low this morning was 28.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 24mph. Our peak wind yesterday afternoon in O’Neal Park was 25mph.
*** The average last freeze is 31 May. Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 66 | 80 / 1989 | 28 | 13 / 1981 |
Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
Radar this morning – There is nothing significant in our region.
Highlights…
*** Streams will rise again over the next few days as temps warm back up. ***
*** Afternoon winds will continue to be gusty. Wednesday will be the windiest day of the week with peak gusts around 40mph and a potential for BLOWING DUST. ***
*** Might see a couple of snowflakes Wednesday night. ***
*** Potential monsoon-like pattern setting up starting this weekend. ***
River flow…
San Juan River, top, peaked at 2,160cfs last night. The Piedra River, bottom, peaked at 2,120cfs early this morning.
On 6 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 5,409cfs, an outflow of 511cfs and rose 0.74 feet. On 7 May it had an inflow of 5,375cfs, an outflow of 514cfs, and it rose 0.74 feet.
Rest of today and Tuesday… Upper level flow will remain fairly strong out of the southwest and dry out. Afternoon winds will continue to be gusty but not as bad as the last couple of days. Scattered clouds will develop during the afternoons, but we’ll stay dry. Temps will warm to slightly above average.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 20-25mph range.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday… A low pressure system will move through late Wednesday and then the upper level trough will linger in the area. There will be just enough moisture and instability to kick up a spotty afternoon and an isolated thunderstorm or two, especially late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Gusty winds on Wednesday could send a dust plume our way courtesy of northeast AZ and northwest NM.
*** The snow level will drop to around 8,000ft late Wednesday evening so a few snowflakes are possible. At best, the lucky spots in the valley could get a dusting. In the mountains above 9,500ft, 1-2” of snow is possible, but it will be spotty. ***
Temps… Wednesday and Friday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Thursday will be a little cooler with highs in the high 50s to high 60s, and lows in the high 20s to high 30s.
Winds… Wednesday will be the windiest day of the week with afternoon gusts in the 30-40mph range. Thursday afternoon gusts will be in the 20-25mph range. Friday afternoon winds will gusts will be in the 15-20mph range.
Saturday, Sunday and beyond… Let’s start with this quote from the Flagstaff NWS forecast discussion:
“By the weekend, what at first looks like a normal ridging pattern, is not. A westward extension of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will push a significant moisture surge into our area by late next weekend and early next week. This moisture remains trapped under the ridge and becomes what is essentially an early monsoon pattern, at least for a few days. Stay tuned on this one, this could be interesting.”
Yep – I agree! The forecast models are consistently indicating a Rex block pattern setting up over the western US and subtropical moisture being pushed into the region from the south. We could be in for a period of wet weather.
Starting Saturday, a high parks itself over the Pacific NW and a weak low spins over the lower Colorado River. This Rex block prevents weather systems from moving west to east. It’s a stagnant pattern that can set up for long periods. I added the green arrows to show the upper flow and moisture advection.
This is a “monsoon-like” pattern that will funnel subtropical moisture into our area and has the potential to be a wet pattern.
My next forecast post will be on Wednesday.
– Shawn
One Response
You guys and gal never cease to amaze me!! That is great news!! How are the water levels doing at Navajo Reservoir?