Shorts today, tie-downs tomorrow!

Wind

Wednesday – 29 March. 2023 – 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 46 and the low this morning was 17 degrees. Humidity bottomed out at 9%. Winds gusted to 11 mph yesterday at a nearby remote sensor.

Precipitation summary: There was no precipitation to summarize!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5172/ 198619-5/ 1975

Forecast discussion…

An impressive low pressure off the California coast will move SE, then east over the next 48 hours, turning into a trough that will move through our area Thursday night along with a cold front. We will see temperatures rise into the 50’s today ahead of the system, so lookout for some wet spots from melting snow. As the trough approaches tomorrow, clouds and wind will be on the increase, along with snow showers and even a chance for some thunderstorms. Look for winds gusting to 50mph in the valley and 65 mph in the mountains. Interesting enough, snow levels will only rise to around 7000 feet, despite high temperatures in the 40’s on Thursday. This means that while most of the precipitation will fall as snow, it will instantly melt on contact during the day. Downtown will likely see a snow/rain mix during the afternoon. By Friday, look for mostly sunny skies, but breezy, with winds 15-25mph and gusts to 35mph.

This advisory has been issued by our Grand Junction NWS…Pueblo NWS has not issued an advisory for Wolf Creek Pass, but since Wolf Creek is above 9000 feet, I would certainly consider this if I were making plans for crossing the pass tomorrow and tomorrow night. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET… * WHAT…Snow expected above 9000 feet. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph. * WHERE…Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN…From 9 AM Thursday to noon MDT Friday.

Screenshot 2023 03 29 081722
An impressive low pressure off the California coast will move SE, the east over the next 48 hours, turning into a trough that will move through our area Thursday night along with a cold front.
StormTotalSnow 1
The NWS is forecasting less than an inch of snow for Pagosa Springs from our next storm.
Screenshot 2023 03 29 075055
The latest NWS model is forecasting around a 1/2 inch of snow tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Screenshot 2023 03 29 074940
Since most of tomorrow’s snow will melt on contact, here is the forecast liquid equivalent.
Screenshot 2023 03 29 081943
Forecast wind gusts Thursday afternoon.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day Partly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 50’s. SW winds 10-15 with gusts to 20mph.

Thursday: Becoming mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Lows in the teens to 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 40’s. SW winds 25-35mph with gusts to 50mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers before sunrise, becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the teens to 20’s and highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph.

Snow totals from Thursday through Friday morning: 0-1 inches valley and 3-6 inches for the mountains.

Saturday-Sunday: Mostly sunny with lows in the upper single digits and teens and highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph.

Monday: Partly cloudy, becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon, with a chance for snow showers/rain in the evening. Lows in the 20’s and highs in the low to mid 50’s. SW winds 15-25mph with gusts over 30.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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2 Responses

  1. My wife and I arrived here since late September, from “Kentuckiana” (Louisville), in the Ohio River Valley. We like the weather here better! More sun and less gray skies, way less wind and less rainy days. Precipitation via more snow makes it a real winter. Still an endurance test. Just wanted to say thanks so much for your team’s excellent coverage. We look forward to seeing the best weather Colorado offers during our short stay;
    may be about one year. Wife is a healthcare traveler who’s sticking around another several
    months. I’m retired. Last, let me know what you think the pass will look like Tuesday. We’re heading back home to KY for two weeks. We bought some ”welcome to Colorado” tire chains, so if the pass is open and we need them, we’re officially “locals”; even as visitors.

    1. Thanks so much and glad you are enjoying Pagosa Springs…it is nice that we get so much sunshine here. As of today, Tuesday could be snowy and windy going over the pass.

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