What a difference a year makes!

Last year

Below is an image from my post exactly a year ago and temperature info.

No snow

3-26-22: Coyote loop trail is almost snow-less on the south facing trails now, thanks to temperatures in the 60’s and lots of sunshine over the past couple of days. If you decide to try and hike it, wear your mud boots because it is very swampy! The low this morning at Stevens Field was 30 degrees and the high yesterday was 61. There was no precipitation recorded for our area.

IMG 7210

3-26-23: Coyote loop trail is covered with 2-3 feet of snow. The low this morning at Stevens Field was 4 degrees and the high yesterday was 32. There was no precipitation recorded for our area.

Sunday – 26 March. 2023 – 10:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 32 and the low this morning was 4 degrees. Humidity bottomed out at 22%. Winds gusted to 23 mph yesterday at a nearby remote sensor…the airfield’s anemometer continues to be on the fritz! The upper Piedra recorded -9 again this morning and my sensor about a mile north of Hatcher Lake dropped to -6 degrees again. The average low is 19 degrees and the average high is 53 degrees.

Precipitation summary: There was no precipitation to summarize yesterday.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5371/ 194019-9/ 1913

Forecast discussion…

Another cold morning with lows below zero to single digits for most of our area. A low pressure in Idaho will be moving east today, sending us a weak trough, a chance for snow and reinforcing cold air. With zonal flow (west-east), I’m not expecting much precipitation from this system…if you get an inch of snow, consider yourself lucky! Monday will be another cold day with highs in the mid to upper 30’s and lows below zero to teens again. By Tuesday we will start a short-term warming trend that will see temperatures actually approaching normal by Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 50’s! Don’t blink, because by Thursday, snow is back in the forecast as a trough and cold front make their way into our area again.

Screenshot 2023 03 26 101248
A low pressure in Idaho will be moving east today, sending us a weak trough, a chance for snow and reinforcing cold air.
StormTotalSnow GJT 2
A weak disturbance will give us a chance for snow showers this afternoon and evening.
Screenshot 2023 03 26 093911
The NWS model is forecasting around a half inch of snow for Pagosa Springs and 2 inches for our mountains this afternoon and evening.
Screenshot 2023 03 26 100142
The latest NBM model is forecasting around an inch of snow from Thursday-Friday.
Screenshot 2023 03 26 101706
The latest GFS model is forecasting close to 4 inches of snow from Thursday-Friday.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day Partly cloudy this morning, becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the low to mid 30’s. SW winds 10-15 with gusts to 25mph. A chance for snow showers in the late afternoon and evening.

0-1 inch of snow for the valley and 1-3 inches for the mountains.

Monday-Tuesday: Mostly sunny with lows in the single digits and teens and highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. SW winds 10-15 with gusts to 20mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with lows in the teens to 20’s and highs in the low to mid 50’s. SW winds 10-15 with gusts to 20mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow and rain showers. Lows in the teens to 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 40’s. SW winds 20-25mph with gusts to 45mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers in the morning. Lows in the teens to 20’s and highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph.

Snow totals from Thursday through Friday morning: 1-2 inches valley and 4-8 inches for the mountains.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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