A mountain peak peeking above the clouds! – Pic taken 3/11/2023
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Sunday – 12 Mar 2023 – 2:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature so far today has been 44. The low in the last 24 hours was 33. Winds in the last 24 hours peaked at 23mph at 3pm yesterday afternoon. So far today the peak wind has been 17mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 47 | 68 / 1989 | 14 | -13 / 1962 |
Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek reported another 11” of new snow this morning which brings them to 20” for the storm. Yesterday’s shower activity mostly stayed over the mountains. Precip reports in the valley this morning are light. 2-day storm totals and a snowpack update are below…
On the left the southern half of the western US is doing quite well. Our nearby San Juan mountain basins are at 149%, just edging out the Gunnison basin at 147%, for best snowpack in the state!
On the right is the snowpack data for our nearby basins. The blue boxes highlight the Upper San Juan and the Wolf Creek Summit data. For this date, the Upper San Juan is at 135% and Wolf Creek Summit is at 145%. The red box is more interesting. That’s “median peak” or where we’d stand if no additional snow fell. The upper San Juan is at 118%, Weminuche Creek is at 149%, and Wolf Creek summit just went over their median peak with 104%. Even better is the overall of 123%! It’s been a good year for moisture, and we aren’t done. If the 15-day forecast models are anywhere near correct, we’ll finish March with well above average precip!
Forecast discussion…
Rest of today and tomorrow… Shower activity will ramp up each afternoon but will continue to be hit and miss. A stray thunderstorm or two is also possible each afternoon. These showers can cause a burst of heavy precip that will be over small areas for short durations. Most will last less than 30 minutes – “if you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes!”.
Temps… Today highs will be around 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Tomorrow highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s
Winds… Winds will peak around 20mph range each afternoon.
Snow levels…
Hit and miss showers (convective activity) will help bounce snow levels around considerably. Most forms of precip are possible with the showers: rain, snow, graupel, and even small hail.
Additional precip amounts…
Valley: 0-1” of snow
Mountains above 9,000ft: 2-4” of snow
Precip will be spotty!
Tuesday… An upper level ridge will move through and keep us dry. Tuesday night clouds and the chance for showers will increase, especially over the mountains. An inch or two of snow is possible in the mountains by sunrise Wednesday.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.
Winds… Afternoon winds will peak around 15mph.
Wednesday through Thursday night… The next system will move through. The storm track, storm energy, and moisture are all lining up for another good round of precip. The amount of warm air and snow levels are going to be challenging again.
Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. Thursday highs will be in the high 30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.
Winds… Peaks winds will be in the 15-20mph range.
Snow levels… Will bounce around the 8,000ft to 8,500ft range Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening and then gradually lower below 7,000ft by Thursday morning.
Precip amounts…
Valley below 7,600ft: 0.30” to 0.60” of liquid equivalent and 1-3” of snow
Valley above 7,600ft: 0.50” to 0.75” of liquid equivalent and 3-6” of snow
Mountains above 9,000ft: 12-20” of snow
** The forecast models still indicate a wide variance in precip totals so I’ll adjust them as the data gets better. **
Friday and Saturday… The pattern will remain unsettled but disorganized. There will be less moisture to work with and limited storm energy but we’ll continue to see scattered showers, especially over the mountains.
Right now I expect low precip amounts and it will be spotty. I’ll include more details in my next post.
There’s a chance that the NWS issues a Winter Storm Watch tomorrow for the Wednesday/Thursday storm for the mountains. I’ll do a quick Facebook post if that happens. Otherwise, my next forecast post will be on Tuesday.
– Shawn
