You know it’s been a good winter when you need snowshoes to do your CoCoRaHS reports!
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Thursday – 9 Mar 2023 – 4:45pm
At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 46. The low this morning was 21. Winds at the airfield peaked at 13mph.
|Record High / Year
|Record Low / Year
|67 / 1972
|-10 / 1964
Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.
Rest of today… Zonal west to east upper level flow will continue to push patches of mid and high clouds through the area.
Temps… Lows tonight will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Winds… Winds will be less than 10mph overnight.
Friday through Sunday… We are going to catch a piece of an “atmospheric river” event. A deep subtropical moisture plume will move west to east across the region.
A few key points: 1. Warmer air will move in making it a sloppy rain/snow mix in the valley. 2. Upper level westerly flow does not favor us. 3. It’s interesting to me that there won’t be much storm energy. Divergent winds aloft will aid lifting, but it’s mostly just deep moisture that will be rapidly lifted over our mountains.
Hit and miss showers are possible Friday afternoon to Sunday afternoon. The best chance for precip is Friday evening through Saturday afternoon. A stray thunderstorm or two is also possible Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Warmer air will limit snow in the valley. Our mountains above 9,000ft will do pretty good, but the northwest San Juans, Grand Mesa, and Elk Mountains will be favored.
Temps… Friday through Sunday highs will be in the low to high 40s. Friday and Saturday lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. Lows Sunday will be in the low 20s to low 30s.
Winds… Winds Friday and Sunday afternoons will peak in the 15-20mph range. Winds Saturday will peak in the 20-25mph range.
Snow levels will rise to 8,000ft by Friday afternoon and will continue to rise to over 8,500ft by Friday evening. They’ll stay over 8,500ft into Saturday evening and then lower to around 7,500ft Saturday night.
Valley below 8,000ft: 0.40” to 0.70” of rain with up to a half inch of slushy snow
Valley above 8,000ft: 0.60” to 1.00” of rain and 1-3” of slushy snow
Mountains above 9,000ft: 12-24”
*** A half inch of rain and temps above freezing will melt snow in the valley and could lead to minor flooding in low-lying areas. It’s going to be a sloppy mess! ***
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the southwest San Juan Mountains for elevations above 8,000ft. 10-20” of snow with up to 30” is possible along with winds to 60mph. valid 11am Friday to 6am Sunday. *** I expect much less snow here in the valley above 8,000ft.
Monday through Tuesday evening… Transient ridging will dry us out a bit but spotty showers are possible, mostly over the mountains.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.
Winds… Afternoon winds will peak around 15mph.
Tuesday night and beyond… Another system is taking shape roughly Tuesday night into Friday morning. And beyond that, it looks like the pattern will stay active through the 8-14 day period.
My next post will be tomorrow.