Calm before the next storm…

Frosty

A frosty start to the day with some of us dipping below zero this morning. © 2023-Mark Langford

Monday – 27 Feb. 2023 – 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 41 and the low this morning was 10 degrees. Humidity bottomed out at 38%. Winds gusted to 33 mph yesterday when the front moved through.

Precipitation summary…Yesterday’s snow melted quickly as it fell, but I did manage to find 1/2 inch of snow on my white snow board about a mile north of Hatcher Lake. Most of us saw 1/2 to 1 inch of snow. Wolf Creek Ski area reported 4 inches of new snow over the past 24 hours.

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24hr Snowfall totals from our COCORAHS reporters ranged from zero to an inch.

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Thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring our upcoming storm.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4464/ 198612-9/ 1971

Forecast discussion…

Look for a mostly sunny day today with highs in the low to mid 30’s and winds 10-15mph out of the SW.

Our next system with a deep trough will start impacting our weather starting tonight. Look for snow showers to start tonight and continue throughout the day Tuesday. To make it more interesting for driving and getting around, we could see winds gusting to 40 mph during the day, creating blowing snow conditions. In the mountains, winds could gust to 60mph, so traveling over Wolf Creek Pass will be very difficult. Advisories and Warnings have not been issued yet, but I would imagine by this afternoon, we will see some issued by the NWS.

Snow will start ramping up tomorrow night, becoming heavy at times during the day on Wednesday, along with blowing snow, as winds gust to 40mph. Wolf Creek Pass will see another day of winds gusting to 60mph along with heavy snow. This system moves through by Thursday morning, leading to partly cloudy skies, with only a slight chance for snow in the morning.

500wh.conus
A trough will be digging into Nevada and California Wednesday, putting us into a moist SW flow. Winds shown here are in the upper-levels.

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

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The latest NWS 3-Day snowfall forecast is predicting 13 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 11 inches of snow for Chama, NM from now through Wednesday afternoon.
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The latest EURO snowfall forecast is predicting 9.9 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 8 inches of snow for Chama, NM from now through Thursday morning.
NBM
The latest NBM snowfall forecast is predicting 9.7 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 7.3 inches of snow for Chama, NM from now through Thursday morning.
GFS 2
The latest GFS snowfall forecast is predicting 12.6 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 11.7 inches of snow for Chama, NM from now through Thursday morning.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of today: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 30’s. Winds SW 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, windy, with snow showers off and on during the day. SW winds 15-25 with gusts exceeding 40mph. Blowing snow will make traveling a real challenge at Wolf Creek Pass with winds gusting to 60mph up there. Highs in the low to mid 30’s and lows in the teens. 1-3 inches of snow for the valley and 5-10 inches of snow for the mountains.

Tuesday NightWednesday Night: Cloudy with snow showers, heavy at times and blowing snow. Lows in the teens and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. SW winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 40mph. 6-12 inches for the valley and 15-25 inches for the mountains.

Thursday-Morning snow showers. Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Lows in the single digits and teens and highs in the mid to upper 30’s. 0-1/2 inch of snow for the valley and 1-2 inches of snow for the mountains.

Friday-Saturday: Mostly sunny with lows in the single digits to low teens and highs in the mid to upper 30’s.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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