Rain odds look great!

Red Moon

Monday night’s almost full moon glowed red from all of the dust and smoke that moved into our area that afternoon. Photo by Mark Langford

Thursday – 16 Jun 2022 – 9am

Archuleta County currently has Stage 1 Fire Restrictions

The San Juan National Forest has implemented STAGE 2 FIRE RESTRICTIONS.

Under Stage II restrictions:

• All fires are prohibited, including campfires, charcoal grills, and coal and wood stoves. The use of petroleum-fueled stoves, lanterns, propane grills, or heating devices is allowed three feet or more from flammable material such as grasses or pine needles.

• Smoking is prohibited, except in enclosed vehicles or buildings.

• Welding or operating acetylene or other torches with an open flame is prohibited.

• Operating or using any internal combustion engine off paved or graveled roads is prohibited. Generators are allowed if equipped with an approved spark arresting device and used in an area that is barren or clear of all overhead and surrounding flammable materials within 3 feet of the generator.

• The use of all firearms (except those engaged in a lawful hunt) and explosives are prohibited, including but not limited to, fuses or blasting caps, fireworks, rockets, exploding targets, and tracers or incendiary ammunition.

• The operation of motor vehicles off established roads, motorized trails or established parking areas is prohibited, except when parking in an area devoid or vegetation within 10 feet of the roadway.

Climate Info:

The high at Stevens Airfield yesterday was 82 degrees. The low this morning was 41. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 8%. Winds at the airfield peaked at 27mph. There was no precipitation recorded in our area.

Forecast discussion…

On Friday, a strong trough will take up residence over the west coast and we will be sandwiched between the trough and the “Hell High” over the plains. This will allow subtropical moisture to start flowing into our area from the south. In the short term, this is setting up to be a “Monsoon Preview”, because the trough will move east by early next week, putting us back in a drier zonal flow. Fortunately, the latest model runs continue to show promise for our traditional monsoon to set up by next weekend, with rain coming back into our forecast. Most models are now predicting 1-2 inches of rain from Friday through Monday with the best odds on Saturday and Sunday. I think Hurricane Blas, off the coast of Mexico will actually increase the moisture content and that may explain why the models are getting wetter. As always, this will be convective activity so there will be daily rainfall winners and losers, but hopefully all of us will end up with some beneficial rain by early next week.

Screenshot 2022 06 16 081018
By Friday, a trough will set up to our west and a ridge to our east…perfect scenario for sub-tropical moisture (Shown in green and blue) to roll into our area! I think some of the moisture from Hurricane Blas will be drawn into the flow as well. This forecast graphic is for Sunday.
Blas 1
It looks like Hurricane Blas will add some additional moisture into our atmosphere this weekend as it moves NW.
NWS Rain
The latest 3-day NWS forecast (Friday-Sunday) is looking promising for some beneficial rain. Circled are Pagosa Springs and Chama. We will continue to have rain on Monday and possibly Tuesday as well.
Screenshot 2022 06 16 081543
The latest Euro model run is predicting over almost 2 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs through Sunday.
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Thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring our first monsoon storm!
Pagosa 5 day forecast 6 16
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

Pagosa Springs historical data for June 16th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7888 / 19473624 / 1970

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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