Rain odds look great!

Red Moon

Monday night’s almost full moon glowed red from all of the dust and smoke that moved into our area that afternoon. Photo by Mark Langford

Thursday – 16 Jun 2022 – 9am

Archuleta County currently has Stage 1 Fire Restrictions

The San Juan National Forest has implemented STAGE 2 FIRE RESTRICTIONS.

Under Stage II restrictions:

• All fires are prohibited, including campfires, charcoal grills, and coal and wood stoves. The use of petroleum-fueled stoves, lanterns, propane grills, or heating devices is allowed three feet or more from flammable material such as grasses or pine needles.

• Smoking is prohibited, except in enclosed vehicles or buildings.

• Welding or operating acetylene or other torches with an open flame is prohibited.

• Operating or using any internal combustion engine off paved or graveled roads is prohibited. Generators are allowed if equipped with an approved spark arresting device and used in an area that is barren or clear of all overhead and surrounding flammable materials within 3 feet of the generator.

• The use of all firearms (except those engaged in a lawful hunt) and explosives are prohibited, including but not limited to, fuses or blasting caps, fireworks, rockets, exploding targets, and tracers or incendiary ammunition.

• The operation of motor vehicles off established roads, motorized trails or established parking areas is prohibited, except when parking in an area devoid or vegetation within 10 feet of the roadway.

Climate Info:

The high at Stevens Airfield yesterday was 82 degrees. The low this morning was 41. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 8%. Winds at the airfield peaked at 27mph. There was no precipitation recorded in our area.

Forecast discussion…

On Friday, a strong trough will take up residence over the west coast and we will be sandwiched between the trough and the “Hell High” over the plains. This will allow subtropical moisture to start flowing into our area from the south. In the short term, this is setting up to be a “Monsoon Preview”, because the trough will move east by early next week, putting us back in a drier zonal flow. Fortunately, the latest model runs continue to show promise for our traditional monsoon to set up by next weekend, with rain coming back into our forecast. Most models are now predicting 1-2 inches of rain from Friday through Monday with the best odds on Saturday and Sunday. I think Hurricane Blas, off the coast of Mexico will actually increase the moisture content and that may explain why the models are getting wetter. As always, this will be convective activity so there will be daily rainfall winners and losers, but hopefully all of us will end up with some beneficial rain by early next week.

Screenshot 2022 06 16 081018
By Friday, a trough will set up to our west and a ridge to our east…perfect scenario for sub-tropical moisture (Shown in green and blue) to roll into our area! I think some of the moisture from Hurricane Blas will be drawn into the flow as well. This forecast graphic is for Sunday.
Blas 1
It looks like Hurricane Blas will add some additional moisture into our atmosphere this weekend as it moves NW.
NWS Rain
The latest 3-day NWS forecast (Friday-Sunday) is looking promising for some beneficial rain. Circled are Pagosa Springs and Chama. We will continue to have rain on Monday and possibly Tuesday as well.
Screenshot 2022 06 16 081543
The latest Euro model run is predicting over almost 2 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs through Sunday.
287243721 3153665951616296 694449370587585878 n
Thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring our first monsoon storm!
Pagosa 5 day forecast 6 16
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

Pagosa Springs historical data for June 16th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7888 / 19473624 / 1970

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Mark Langford

Mark Langford

I consider myself a "weather journalist" who has been studying and following meteorology since taking an earth science class in eighth grade. Later, when I became a professional commercial photographer, I learned that my continued studies in meteorology helped me plan outdoor photo assignments. I'm now a semi-retired photographer who teaches photo workshops, goes storm chasing and of course enjoys photographing great landscapes and clouds in our area. My fine art photography can be seen here: https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/1-mark-langford
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2023 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon