Lots of sun, warmer, and breezy afternoons…

Sunset over Graham Peak… Pic taken 5/30/2022

Sunset over Graham Peak… Pic taken 5/30/2022

Tuesday – 31 May 2022 – 9:00am

Plumtaw Fire update…

Incident Type: Wildfire
Percent Contained: 77%
Size: 721 acres
More Fire Information: Via Inciweb
Last Updated: yesterday

Perins Peak Fire (Durango)

Incident Type: Wildfire
Percent Contained: 80%
Size: 106 acres
More Fire Information: Via Inciweb
Last Updated: 13 Hours Ago

The past…

At Stevens Field the high on Sunday afternoon was 69 and Monday afternoon it was 60.  The low at the airfield Monday morning was 36 and this morning it was 33. The cold spots dipped into the mid-20s yesterday morning and then again this morning. Humidity Sunday afternoon bottomed out at 16% and on Monday it was 15%. Winds at the airfield Sunday afternoon peaked at 44mph and Monday afternoon winds hit 43mph. We hit 48mph in O’Neal Park yesterday. Martha’s weather sensor in Arboles had a peak wind of 53mph on Sunday and 34mph on Monday. 

Fire and smoke map this morning: Smoke continues to stay to our east due to southwest winds.
Fire and smoke map this morning: Smoke continues to stay to our east due to southwest winds. 

Precip summary… A few raindrops fell on Sunday, but most of us didn’t get enough to wet the ground. The lucky folks down towards Chromo got around 0.10”.  Hey, share some of that with the rest of the county!

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Forecast discussion…

A weak low will continue to weaken as it slowly moves across northern UT.  There will hardly be anything left of the system when it moves through Colorado tomorrow.

Ridging will take over the second half of the week and give us lots of sun, warm temps, and breezy afternoons.

Satellite this morning: It’s mostly clear in our area this morning. The low over northeast NV is weak and will continue to weaken as it slowly moves across northern UT. A few more clouds will move into our area this afternoon as the system slides to our north.
Satellite this morning: It’s mostly clear in our area this morning. The low over northeast NV is weak and will continue to weaken as it slowly moves across northern UT. A few more clouds will move into our area this afternoon as the system slides to our north.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
NBM precip through 11 Jun at 6am: This blend of various models expects no precip for southwest Colorado. Other models expect a little.  I see potential for spotty afternoon showers, but I don’t see any soakers anytime soon.
NBM precip through 11 Jun at 6am: This blend of various models expects no precip for southwest Colorado. Other models expect a little.  I see potential for spotty afternoon showers, but I don’t see any soakers anytime soon.
The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precip outlook expects us to get below average precip. Unless the pattern changes in our favor, I don’t expect us to get much precip the first half of June.
The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precip outlook expects us to get below average precip. Unless the pattern changes in our favor, I don’t expect us to get much precip the first half of June.
This is Euro ensemble wind gusts to Sunday at midnight –This chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left.  Times are in Zulu.  I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity.  Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. This product has been handling daily peak wind gusts very well. Looking ahead, this model expects peak winds in the 25-30mph range all week.
This is Euro ensemble wind gusts to Sunday at midnight –This chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left.  Times are in Zulu.  I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity.  Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. This product has been handling daily peak wind gusts very well. Looking ahead, this model expects peak winds in the 25-30mph range all week.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7287 / 19563220 / 1916

Can we move our plants outside yet?

Most of us will be able to leave our plants out starting Thursday.  You folks that live in a cold spot might want to wait another week.

Make sure to check out Arleen’s Monsoon post. She spent hours digging into data. She did an excellent job explaining the monsoon and outlining her conclusions. What do we expect this summer?  Find the answer here: Will the 2022 Monsoon bring much needed relief to Pagosa Springs?

Another presentation!  We, mostly Arleen, will discuss the summer monsoon season at the San Juan Outdoor Club meeting on Thursday, 2 June, at 6:30pm at the PLPOA Clubhouse on Port Avenue. The meeting is open to everyone. The San Juan Outdoor Club is full of active folks doing good stuff for our community and our trails!

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Thursday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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