Beautiful winter day today and then more snow Wednesday and Thursday…

A glorious sunrise up at Wolf Creek!… Web cam capture 3/8/2022 around 6:30am

A glorious sunrise up at Wolf Creek!… Web cam capture 3/8/2022 around 6:30am

Tuesday – 7 Mar 2022 – 10:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 32. The low last night was 13.  I saw temps down to -7 in the cold spots. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 20mph. We had thick fog again this morning in O’Neal Park.

Weather Underground temps this morning around 6:15 this morning were mostly in the 10-15 degree range.  A few cold spots got below zero. Here in O’Neal Park, we hit -7 at 6:30am.
Weather Underground temps around 6:15 this morning were mostly in the 10-15 degree range.  A few cold spots got below zero. Here in O’Neal Park, we hit -7 at 6:30am.

Precip summary… Hit and miss snowshowers moved through much of the day yesterday – pretty classic “if you don’t like the weather just wait a few minutes”.  Wolf Creek reported another 5” in the last 24 hours and 28” for the storm. 

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from a trace to 1.2”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from a trace to 1.2”.

Forecast discussion…

Transient ridging and upper level northwest flow will dry us out and give us sunny skies today.

Wednesday afternoon into Thursday evening the next system will move through the area and bring another round of snow.

Friday through at least Tuesday, a ridge will build back over the region and keep us dry.

8 Mar 2022 am water vapor
Water vapor satellite: The trough moved through last night and drier air has moved in behind it. Upper level flow northwest flow will keep us dry for the next 24 hours and then the next trough will bring more clouds and snow.

My forecast…

Tomorrow – spotty snowshowers will start over the mountains in the morning and over the valley in the afternoon. The best chance for snow is Wednesday evening to around sunset Thursday.  Then spotty snowshowers will linger until midnight, especially over the mountains.
Tomorrow – spotty snowshowers will start over the mountains in the morning and over the valley in the afternoon. The best chance for snow is Wednesday evening to around sunset Thursday.  Then spotty snowshowers will linger until midnight, especially over the mountains.

***  The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the southwest San Juan Mountains valid 5am Wednesday to 11pm Thursday.  It’s for 6-12” of snow with locally higher amounts, and winds gusting to 40mph.  *** This does not include Pagosa Springs

NWS snowfall through Friday at 6am shows 6-8” for Pagosa and the mountains are in the 12-18” range. Snow is expected for the entire state.  Road conditions and visibility will be poor at times.
NWS snowfall through Friday at 6am shows 6-8” for Pagosa and the mountains are in the 12-18” range. Snow is expected for the entire state. Road conditions and visibility will be poor at times.
The University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble for Wolf Creek shows the average range from 13” to 16”.  Though this system is just 48 to 60 hours out, the overall range is roughly 5-25” so there is still uncertainty with this system.
The University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble for Wolf Creek shows the average range from 13” to 16”.  Though this system is just 48 to 60 hours out, the overall range is roughly 5-25” so there is still uncertainty with this system.
NBM snowfall through Thursday at 11pm shows7.6” in town and 12-20” in our mountains.  The models this morning range from 1.5” to 8” for town.  That’s a pretty sizeable range just 48 to 60 hours out.
NBM snowfall through Thursday at 11pm shows 7.6” in town and 12-20” in our mountains.  The models this morning range from 1.5” to 8” for town.  That’s a pretty sizeable range just 48 to 60 hours out.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4666 / 197212-13 / 1931

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will likely be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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