A few snowflakes today – a few more later in the week…

Big ole flakes falling in O’Neal Park!... Pic taken 1/8/2022 at 9am

Big ole flakes falling in O’Neal Park!… Pic taken 1/8/2022 at 9am

Saturday – 8 Jan 2022 – 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp in the last 24 hours was 45. The low this morning was missing again. Low temps across the valley averaged 10 to 20 this morning.The peak wind at the airfield was 6mph.

Precip in the last 24 hours…  It’s snowing across parts of the valley and up at Wolf Creek as I type.  Check out tomorrow’s post for amounts.

Wolf Creek Pass web cam this morning: Expect occasional poor visibility and slick roads today
Wolf Creek Pass web cam this morning: Expect occasional poor visibility and slick roads today

Forecast discussion…

Today a weak trough coming from the west will move through this evening and give us more clouds and scattered snowshowers.

Sunday through most of Wednesday will be mostly dry, however the mountains could see a few snowflakes Tuesday.

Starting Wednesday night and into Saturday afternoon a cut-off low will slowly move through the Four Corners region and keep things unsettled.  Moisture and storm energy will be weak so precip amounts will be on the low end.

Water vapor satellite this morning: The first trough will move through in the afternoon and the second, weaker one, will move through this evening.
Water vapor satellite this morning: The first trough will move through in the afternoon and the second, weaker one, will move through this evening.
Side note: It’s bad form to analyze everything in yellow but that shows up best on this map.
Radar this morning: There is a long band of showers associated with the trough moving east.  As always, our radar donut hole isn’t showing everything.
Radar this morning: There is a long band of showers associated with the trough moving east.  As always, our radar donut hole isn’t showing everything.

My forecast…

Today… We’ll see mostly cloudy skies and scattered snowshowers.  The heaviest snow will fall between now and late afternoon, but it won’t amount to much. Spotty snowshowers will linger over the mountains until midnight. Highs will be in the 30s and lows will be 5 to 20.

Snowfall amounts…

– Valley: mostly less than 1” but a few spots closer to the mountains could get 2”

– Mountains: 2-4”

8 Jan 2022 am NWS snowfall
NWS snowfall shows less than an inch in the higher parts of the valley and up to 3” in our mountains.

Sunday through Wednesday afternoon… There will be lots of blue sky with occasional patches of mid and upper level clouds.  The mountains could see a few spotty snowshowers Tuesday, but they’ll be lucky to get an inch.  Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be 5 to 20.

Wednesday night through Saturday… Expect more clouds and scattered snowshowers.

First guess snow totals…

– Valley: 1-3”

– Mountains: 3-6”

Mark will dial in the specifics as the data gets better.

NBM snowfall to next Saturday, 15 Jan, and 11pm shows 1-3” in the valley and 4-8” in our mountains.  Models are all over the place with timing and amounts so forecast confidence is low. Note this includes all snowfall to this point.
NBM snowfall to next Saturday, 15 Jan, and 11pm shows 1-3” in the valley and 4-8” in our mountains.  Models are all over the place with timing and amounts so forecast confidence is low. Note this includes all snowfall to this point.
University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek shows around 2” today then another 3-6” by Friday evening.  The Canadian model, red dashed line, is more optimistic than the GFS, red solid line.  This doesn’t quite capture the entire system.
University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek shows around 2” today then another 3-6” by Friday evening.  The Canadian model, red dashed line, is more optimistic than the GFS, red solid line.  This doesn’t quite capture the entire system.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3657 / 1956-2-30 / 1913

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Make sure to check out Arleen’s latest long-range outlook.

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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