Fantastic snow conditions and beautiful weather this week…

Winter Outlook

Our pup loves the snow!… Pic taken 1/1/2022

Sunday – 2 Jan 2022 – 9:40am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp in the last 24 hours was 29 and it occurred at 10:35am yesterday.  Temps dropped from there. The low this morning was -12. The peak wind at the airfield was 22mph.

Here in O’Neal Park we hit 32mph when the showers moved through around 2pm.  Our temp bottomed out at -21 at 4:02am.  Between our high yesterday of 26 shortly before noon and our low, we had a 47 degree temperature swing!

Temps on Weather Underground at 7am this morning were mostly in the -14 to -5 range.
Temps on Weather Underground at 7am this morning were mostly in the -14 to -5 range.

Precip in the last 24 hours… A band of brief but intense snowshowers moved through yesterday afternoon and dropped a quick inch of snow over much of the valley.

Wolf Creek reported 7” of new snow in the last 24 hours. That brings their total to 127” since 23 December.

CoCoRaHS 24hr snowfall totals vary from 0.8” to 3.0” in Archuleta County. That 3” south of Echo Canyon Reservoir is a surprise.
CoCoRaHS 24hr snowfall totals vary from 0.8” to 3.0” in Archuleta County. That 3” south of Echo Canyon Reservoir is a surprise.
Wolf Creek Pass is snow-packed but visibility is great today
Wolf Creek Pass is snow-packed but visibility is great today.

Forecast discussion…

Now ridging will build in and give us quiet weather most of the week.  Upper level flow will turn more northwesterly and dry out for us – a more typical La Nina pattern.  A northwest trajectory favors northern Colorado, especially the Steamboat area.  A northwest trajectory is not our friend!

Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning a trough will move through northern Colorado from the northwest.  Our mountains might see a few scattered snowshowers, but most of the action will stay to our north.

Saturday and Sunday another weak trough coming from the northwest dips just a little farther south and will give us more clouds and scattered snowshowers, especially in the mountains.

GeoColor satellite this morning: With the exception of the clouds across northern NV, this is ALL SNOW – very cool and much needed!
GeoColor satellite this morning: With the exception of the clouds across northern NV, this is ALL SNOW – very cool and much needed!

My forecast…

Today through Friday…  We’ll see lots of sun most of this period.  A few more clouds and a few mountain snowshowers will move through Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning.  A few lucky spots in the mountains along the Divide could get an inch of snow. Patchy morning fog is possible in the low lying areas, especially after a sunny day with temps above freezing in the afternoon.

Weather geek alert… A sunny day with temps above freezing melt a little bit of snow and add moisture to the air just above the surface.  That little bit of added moisture then pools in the low-lying areas. Overnight temps cool to saturation leading to patchy fog.

Temps will start below average today and then warm to average by tomorrow. Highs today will be in the lower to upper 20s, and in the 30s through Thursday.  Friday will be a little warmer with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows tonight will be -10 to 10, and then -5 to 15 the rest of the period.

Avalanche conditions are rated CONSIDERABLE.

“You can easily trigger avalanches large enough to bury or kill you. Stay off and out from under slopes steeper than about 30 degrees over the next few days.”

NBM snowfall to Thursday at 11am shows a dusting along the Divide to the north.  Typical of a northwest flow pattern, northern Colorado will be favored.
NBM snowfall to Thursday at 11am shows a dusting along the Divide to the north.  Typical of a northwest flow pattern, northern Colorado will be favored.

Saturday and Sunday… We’ll see a few more clouds and scattered snowshowers, mostly in the mountains. 

Snowfall amounts…

– Valley: up to an inch

– Mountains: 1-3”

NBM snowfall to Sunday at 11pm shows 0.4” in town and around an inch in the mountains. Again northern Colorado is favored.  Note this includes all snowfall to this point.
NBM snowfall to Sunday at 11pm shows 0.4” in town and around an inch in the mountains. Again northern Colorado is favored.  Note this includes all snowfall to this point.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3453 / 1981-2-37 / 1911

The first week of January averages are our coldest of the year.

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

I’ll get the December summary and January outlook posted later today.

I’m skipping tomorrow so my next forecast post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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